- SWFX traders are 52% bullish
- 58% of pending orders are to buy the metal
- The bullion opened at 1,270.05
- Upcoming Events: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change; US Unemployment Claims; US ISM Manufacturing PMI
The yellow metal did not only reach the 1,270 mark in the previous trading session, but also managed to almost touch the 1,275 level. However, on Thursday morning the commodity price was declining, as after hitting the resistance of the weekly R1 at the 1,275.49 mark the bullion began a decline, which lasted into Thursday's trading session.
The US economy expanded at a stronger-than-initially expected pace in the March quarter; however, an economic slowdown remained on the table in the second quarter. The Commerce Department reported on Friday that Q1 GDP growth came in at a seasonally adjusted annualized pace of 1.2%, compared to an originally reported pace of 0.7%. Meanwhile, analysts expected the economy to expand 0.9% in the reported quarter. However, that was the worst performance over the past 12 months.
High impact US releases
This Thursday is the day to watch out for US fundamental macroeconomic data releases. Namely, the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change at 12:15 GMT, US Unemployment Claims at 12:30 GMT and the ISM Manufacturing PMI at 14:00 GMT are the data sets to watch. The Dukascopy Research team will cover on the live webinar the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, as it is considered by the team as the most important data set of the day, and volatility is expected.
XAU/USD appreciation might be expected
The yellow metal started Thursday's trading session with slight losses against the US Dollar. The pair is stranded between the weekly R1 and PP at 1,275.49 and 1,261.80, respectively, leaving enough potential to trade either way. Contrary to bearish perspectives in the morning, the base scenario favours the pair trading higher to target the 1,275.49 level. This assumption is likewise confirmed by bullish technical indicators. Nevertheless, it is yet to be seen if the rate manages to push above this the weekly PP.
Daily chart
Notable additional information from the hourly chart is that the bullion is being supported by the combined support of the 55 and 100-hour SMAs, which on Thursday morning were fluctuating near the 1,265 mark. Moreover, they were very close to the lower Bollinger band of the hourly chart.
Hourly chart
Bulls remain dominant
SWFX traders have increased their bullish sentiment, as 52% of open positions are long. In addition, 58% of set up orders are to buy the metal—a slight decrease from Wednesday's 59%.
OANDA Gold traders remain bullish, as open positions are 65.00% long on Thursday, compared to 64.29% previously. Meanwhile, traders of SAXO bank are once more almost neutral, as 54.09% of open positions are long, compared to 53.57% positions on Wednesday.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Market participants foresee the price of gold being near 1,350 in September
Traders who were asked regarding their longer-term views on gold between May 1 and June 1 expect, on average, to see the metal just below 1,350 in September. Generally, 44% of participants believe the price will be above 1,350 in ninety days. Meanwhile, 34% of those surveyed reckon the metal will trade in the range between 1,250 and 1,350 over the next three months.