- SWFX market sentiment is 51% bearish
- Pending commands in the 100-pip range 52% short
- Pair opened Monday's session at the 1.0987 level
- Aggregate daily technical indicators bet EUR/USD will depreciate
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: Italian Confidence Index in Manufacturing (July); US Durable Goods Orders (June); US Pending Home Sales (June); FOMC Rate
As markets expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) kept its key interest rates on hold on Thursday, but signaled that it is prepared to add more monetary stimulus later in the year. The main refinancing rate was left at 0%, whereas the ECB interest rates on the deposit facility and the marginal lending facility remained unchanged at -0.40% and 0.25%, respectively. The central bank slashed its deposit rate deeper into negative territory in March. In a news conference, Mr. Draghi said the Brexit vote had added to "headwinds" for the Euro zone economy, that include broader geopolitical uncertainty. Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank, also confirmed that the monthly asset purchases of 80 billion euros may run beyond the current deadline of March 2017, if necessary. Furthermore, the central bank's President highlighted that the governing council may provide more stimulus at its next meeting in September, as new post-Brexit forecasts for economic growth and inflation will be available by that time. Meanwhile, analysts polled by Reuters slashed their growth forecast for the Euro zone to 1.3% from 1.6%, but left inflation projections unchanged at 1.3%
New US single-family home sales rose more than expected in June, fresh figures from the US Census Bureau showed on Tuesday. Sales of newly built homes grew 3.5% to a seasonally adjusted rate of 592,000 units during the reported month, posting the strongest reading since February 2008 and surpassing market analysts' expectations for an increase to 560,000 units. In the meantime, the previous month's sales pace was revised up to 572,000 from the originally reported 551,000 units. The housing market is being underpinned by the tightening labor market, which is starting to lift wages, as well as very low mortgage rates. Other data released on Tuesday showed that the mood of shoppers across the United States worsened less than expected in the seventh month of the year, as the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 97.3 points in July, whereas economic desks predicted a steeper deceleration to 95.6 in the reported month. Meanwhile, last month's figure was revised down to 97.4 from the prior reading of 98.0 points, which was the highest since January. Furthermore, it appeared that Britain's recent decision to leave the European Union did not have any significant impact on American consumers.
Upcoming fundamentals: Italian manufacturing, US durable goods orders and FOMC rate
Most eyes are set on FOMC Rate announcement at 18:00 GMT on Wednesday, as market participants and experts forecast that the rate will remain unchanged at 0.5%. However, there are other data releases upcoming before the rate announcement. First of all, at 8:00 GMT the Italian Confidence Index in Manufacturing for July will be published. Later on in the day, US Durable Goods Orders for June will be released at 12:30 GMT, and, four hours before the FOMC Rate, US Pending Home Sales monthly change for June will be out at 14:00 GMT.
EUR/USD at 1.10 on Wednesday morning
Daily chart: The Euro was highly volatile to the upside against the Greenback on Tuesday, as the pair had reached above the weekly PP at 1.1005. The currency exchange rate was volatile between the levels of 1.0978 and 1.1030. However, at the end of the day the rate moved lower, as the common European currency ended Tuesday's trading session at 1.0986, which is eight pips lower than the opening price of 1.0994. On Wednesday morning, the rate has resume to surge, as it was at 1.10 by 4:45 GMT.Daily chart
Hourly chart: The hourly chart shows that the common European currency jumped against the US Dollar at 4:00 GMT from 1.0988 to 1.1012 by 6:00 GMT. The pair continued to trade around that level for the next four hours, and afterwards it fell below 1.0982 by 14:00 GMT. Since then the currency exchange rate has slowly surged to 1.0997 by 5:15 GMT. In the meantime, daily aggregate technical indicators forecast a decline for the pair today.
Hourly chart
SWFX sentiment slightly bearish on Wednesday
OANDA trader bearish sentiment has increased compared to Tuesday's 51.54%, as, at the moment, 52.25% of OANDA open positions are short. In addition, SAXO Bank clients have slightly increased their bearish stance, as their open short positions are now at 54.27% compared to 54.07% of last trading session.