- Opened positions on Gold remain positive (64% bullish / 36% bearish)
- The closest resistance for the yellow metal is currently located at 1,210
- At the same time, the closest support for the bullion is placed at 1,199
- Upcoming events on April 6: US Markit Services PMI (Mar) and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
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Gold rebounded after falling earlier in the Friday trading session amid positive US economic data, which showed US initial jobless claims dropped to the lowest level in nine weeks, while US trade deficit shrank in February to the lowest since 2009. Even though US markets are closed on Friday, a highly anticipated data on non-farm payrolls will be released later in the day. The US employment report is predicted to show 245,000 new jobs were added to the labour market in March after the gain of 295,000 in the preceding month.
The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits fell to nine-week low, according to the US Labor Department. Initial jobless claims declined by 20,000 to 268,000 in the week ended March 28, overshooting economists' forecasts for 286,000. Continuing unemployment claims for the week ended March 14 also dropped to 2.325 million from 2.413 million reported in the preceding week.
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Gold to continue pricing Friday's fundamentals on April 6
Despite the fact that Monday will bring two rather important statistical releases mentioned above, Gold will most probably continue pricing data from Friday. As the metal is not trading on April 3 due to Easter holidays and US are reporting on employment change the same day, it will most probably be assessed by market as soon as Monday, especially in case the real data diverges considerably from expectations.Read More: Fundamental Analysis
XAU/USD develops inside bearish wedge pattern on daily chart
Since the second quarter of 2013, the bullion has been developing inside the falling wedge pattern, meaning that trading range is decreasing as time goes on. In March 2014, however, the yellow metal resumed gaining value, even without touching the lower trend-line which is currently located around 1,100. Therefore, towards the end of April the bullion is likely to approach the upper boundary of this pattern just below 1,280 where bears are forecasted to overtake a lead and drive the metal back to the south. The overall negative trend for Gold seems also inevitable in the long-term future, while at the end of this year the precious metal is likely to consolidate around 1,150, in case the present trend persists.Daily chart
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At market closing time on Thursday at 21:00 GMT, just before the Easter holidays started, the yellow metal posted no considerable movements in either direction. The bullion finished its trading week just above the weekly PP/round level at 1,202, thus registering only a minor decrease in price on a daily basis. The price of the metal remains capped both by 100-day SMA and four-week up-trend. However, judging from technical indicators, Gold can still be in a position to climb above this supply area, after trading resumes in the night between Sunday and Monday.
Hourly chart
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Read More: Technical Analysis
SWFX opened positions remain positive
Meanwhile, OANDA's bulls continue to enjoy a firm majority as their share of total opened trades stays at 59.36% at the moment, a rebound of about two percentage points during past 24 hours. Gold's sentiment is currently only the seventh most positive among major currency pairs at OANDA, down three positions since Wednesday. SaxoGroup market participants, in turn, are also positive with respect to the precious metal, as there are 61% of bullish positions registered by 5:30 GMT on April 3.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on XAU/USD between Mar 3 and Apr 3 expect, on average, to see Gold trading at 1,200 by the end of July. At the same time, 51% of them still believe the bullion will be strongly above this mark in three months, while 33% of traders surveyed forecast the bullion to trade in the range between 1,050 and 1,200.
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