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Lothar Hessler
Economist at HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt AG, Germany
How would you assess the current economic situation in Germany?
Currently, the German economy is favourable, as the domestic demand is in a very good position same as consumption, which has increased due to the good situation in German labour market. We predict that the consumer spending will increase by 1 % this year.
German business confidence rose the highest in seven months in February. Do you see this positive trend enduring this year?
The Ifo Business Climate was for 6 months by the expectations in the negative area. And now the expectations and conditions are both in the positive area. I think, this positive tendency would continue during the course of this year.
Do you think that being at this particular moment a member state of the EU is slowing down the economy growth of the country?
No, I do not think so. On the one hand, there are costs and the negative effects of the fiscal measures taken by the European Union. On the other hand, Germany is in a very good position in the Worldwide Trade system and the country has improved, compared to China. For the first time in last 8 years people in Germany moved up, and the number of foreigners are coming to Germany looking for a job and staying there, which is positive for the demographics of the country. Currently, shortage of labour is a question. I believe, that the favourable situation in German labor market will continue. To sum up, it is wrong to argue that being the Eurozone member is totally negative, because Germany proves to be safe haven country.
What is your official forecast for German economy for 2012?
We expect further movement of German economy into the positive area.