- Pending orders in 100-pip range from the current market price are negative (41% bullish / 59% bearish)
- In case the pair increases in price, the closest resistance for it is located at 1.2204
- The downward movement is possible as well, while for that purpose the closest support is placed at 1.2098
- Upcoming events: US Unemployment Claims, Pending Homes Sales and Crude Oil Inventories
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Greece's Prime Minister Antonis Samaras announced a snap general election next month following the third and final unsuccessful attempt to elect a president. Samaras failed to obtain the required number of lawmakers in Greece's parliament to support his nominee Stavros Dimas in a decisive vote in the presidential elections on Monday at noon. Only 168 lawmakers voted for Dimas, 12 votes short of the 180 needed to win. Early general elections will take place on January 25, triggering a potential crisis or even Greece's exit from the Euro bloc.
Opinion polls show that the leftist anti-austerity and anti-bailout party Syriza, led by Alexis Tsipras, is gaining more support of Greeks and is likely to win the national election. Syriza wants the Euro zone to write off a substantial part of Greece's debt, which is estimated to reach almost 178% of GDP this year, as well as cancel the terms of a bailout programme from the Troika. There are concerns within the European Union that a potential Syriza-led government could eventually lead Greece to leave the Euro area.
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US data to drive EUR/USD on last day of 2014
Despite upcoming New Year's celebration across the world, December 31 will bring some portion of noticeable fundamental data, which is likely to have impact on performance of the most traded currency pair. The most important statistics is considered to be the weekly jobless claims, which will be followed by pending home sales for November and crude oil inventories in the US for the week ended December 28. Alongside, the Chicago PMI will show activity in different industries of this city's region.Read More: Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD to trade in the direction of 1.20
As the long-term outlook for the EUR/USD currency pair has been remaining bearish for the last couple of weeks, the cross managed to reach a new annual minimum at 1.2123, just before the year ended on December 30. Taking into account the present situation, the pair is likely to decline even more down to the 2012 low at 1.2040 in the medium-term and move in the direction of the major level at 1.20. On the other hand, there is a possibility of a rebound up to 1.2204 (weekly PP), before the leadership is finally overtaken by pair's bears.Daily chart
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EUR/USD pair continued trading in the bearish environment on Monday, as it declined below the weekly S1 and set a new minimum of the year 2014 at 1.2123. Despite that, the mentioned support line held bears from going further to the south. Moreover, the new 2014 low is reinforced by monthly S3/weekly S2 from the downside and is unlikely to give up easily. We expect the pair to close this year around 1.2130, while during first days of 2015 it is going to test the 1.21 major level.
Hourly chart
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Read More: Technical Analysis
Opened positions stay bullish, positive pending orders drop to 41%
Additionally, long pending orders in 100-pip range from the spot slipped to 41% from Monday's morning to hit its lowest level in five trading days. It implies that, in case the pair increases, in the medium-term the pair can be stopped by the weekly PP at 1.2204.
On the other hand, if the pair declines, the bearish pressure may extend down to the monthly S3/weekly S2, which is located at 1.2098.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Community expects Euro to rebound against Greenback
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Read More: Community Forecasts
Panzer, one of the community members participating in the survey, motivates his bullish outlook towards the common currency by saying that the EUR/USD currency pair going test the long-term positive trend which started back in June 2011 with the price of 1.22. He also adds that he does not see "any reason for the decline in the pair, this is a strong level for strong rejection."
Meanwhile, traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on EUR/USD between Nov 30 and Dec 30 expect, on average, to see the currency pair around 1.23 by the mid-March. Though the largest portion of participants, namely 23% of them, believe the exchange rate will drop down to the 1.22/1.20 region in ninety days. On top of that, the 32% of those surveyed reckon the price will fall below 1.20 by the end of the first quarter of the next year.
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