GBP/USD recovery faces resistance

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
On April 23rd, the US Dollar dropped at 13:45 GMT. The drop was created by the publication of the United States Manufacturing and Services sector Purchasing Managers Indices. Released numbers showed a slowdown of US business activity.

On GBP/USD charts it resulted in a strengthening of the ongoing recovery. The rate reached the resistance of the 1.2460 level. This resistance held and forced the pair to look for support in the 1.2410/1.2425 range.

Economic Calendar



On Thursday, watch the publication of the US Advance quarterly GDP publication at 12:30 GMT. Note that the United States GDP data is published over the span of a quarter by giving updated data each month. First release has the most impact and is called the Preliminary. It is followed by the Advance GDP release, which is expected on Thursday. Afterwards, the GDP publications end with the Final GDP, and the cycle starts again with a new quarter.

Also on Thursday, watch the US Pending Home Sales data publication at 14:00 GMT. In the recent months, this previously ignored data set has started to impact the US Dollar.

On Friday, one of the top US data releases will occur. The Core Personal Consumption Expenditure will reveal more detailed impact of inflation on the US consumer. US monetary policy makers have been observing this index instead of the Consumer Price Index to decide upon their policy.

GBP/USD hourly chart analysis

A resumption of the GBP recovery against the Dollar is set to face resistance in round exchange rate levels. Namely, it has been observed that the 1.2460, 1.2480, 1.2500 and 1.2520 have acted as both support and resistance during April. Meanwhile, note that the 1.2500 mark is likely to have more impact than the rest of the levels. Higher above, take into account the combination of the weekly R2 simple pivot point at 1.2543 and the 1.2540 level.

If the currency pair declines below the 1.2410/1.2425 rage, the weekly simple pivot point that is located in the range, the support line of the recent surge, the 50 and the 100-hour simple moving average, a decline is expected to be slowed down by the weekly S1 at 1.2325 and round price levels until the 1.2300 mark is reached.

Hourly Chart

GBP/USD daily candle chart analysis

On the daily candle chart, the GBP/USD is below the 1.2380/1.2430 range that previously acted as support. On Tuesday, it appeared to be acting as resistance to the ongoing retracement back up.

If the rate resumes the broader decline, watch the line that connects the low levels. It could act as support. Meanwhile, the 1.2300, 1.2200 levels will act as support, before the 1.2040/1.2090 range is reached.

Daily chart


Traders remain long

On Tuesday, traders were 70% bullish, as that proportion of all open position volume on Swiss Foreign Exchange was in long positions.

Meanwhile, pending orders in the 100-pip range around the rate were 62% to sell.

During Wednesday's trading, 67% of traders were long and orders were 60% to sell.

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