- SWFX traders are 53% bullish
- 70% of pending orders in 500-pip range are set to BUY the gold
- Pair begins new day at 1,290.50
- Upcoming Events: US Existing Home Sales, Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
Due to uneasy situation on the Iberian Peninsula, the yellow metal surged to the 1,290.50 level but then was forced to retreat by the 100- and 200-hour SMAs. At the moment, the pair is fluctuating near the cross point of a large descending and smaller ascending channels plus the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. A 53% bullish market sentiment indicates that the rate is likely to make a rebound.
The Commerce Department revealed that building permits fell to 1.13M in the month of September. Meanwhile, homebuilding in the US dropped to the weakest level in a year in reported period, as Hurricanes Irma and Harvey caused the disruption of single-family homes construction in the South, which could drag the country's GDP growth in the September quarter.
Janet Yellen speaks in Washington DC
Basically, there are no signifficant macroeconomic data releases planned for today. The only event that might have some impact on Dollar pairs is the Fed Chair speech at the Herbert Stein Memorial Lecture in Washington at 23:30 GMT.
XAU/USD returns to weekly S1 at 1,284.92
In result of a breakout from the rising wedge pattern, which matched with escalation of tensions between Spanish and Catalan governments, the exchange rate surged to the 1,290.50 level. In the process, the pair made multiple attempts to bypass the 100- and 200-hour SMAs but each time failed. As a result, it was forced to retreat back to the weekly S1 at 1,284.92. An aggregate of technical indicators points out on further depreciation of the yellow metal via sending strong sell signals. This assumption is also supported by the fact the pair is fluctuating in a minor ascending channel, which consists of two reaction highs and only one reaction low for now. Hence, bears have an opportunity to push the price back to the 1,279.00 area, which presents location of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Hourly Chart
Daily chart reveals that basically this whole week that pair spent in a limbo between the 55-day SMA from the top and the 100-day SMA and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the bottom. This horizontal movement also makes clear that traders are waiting for certain fundamental changes to decisively push the pair in one of the above directions. The events that fall in that list include anticipation of another interest rate hike, Janet Yellen's replacement, Donald Trump's tax reform, resolution of the North Korean crisis and others.Daily Chart
Markets sentiment remain bullish
Traders of Dukascopy are bullish on valuation of the gold, as 53% of open positions are long. Accordingly, 53% of pending commands are to buy the commodity.
OANDA traders are bullish, as 64% (-4%) of open positions are long, compared to previous trading day. In the meantime, SAXO bank traders are less bullish, as 58% (-2%) of open positions are also long.