- SWFX traders are 53% bearish
- 52% of pending orders in 700-pip range are set to SELL the gold
- Pair tries to reach 1,290.90 target
- Upcoming Events: US Core PCE Price Index, Personal Spending, Chicago PMI and Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
In result of a rebound from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1,278.96 the gold started to recover against the buck. However, the initial surge was hindered by the 55-hour SMA. Nevertheless, today the pair is expected to try to return to the northern path and eventually reach the 100-hour SMA near 1,293.15.
The Commerce Department said that the US economic growth in the second quarter was the quickest in more than two years, with a 3.1% annual increase in the reported period. However, growth momentum is expected to be slowed owing to the impact of Hurricanes Irma and Harvey. Analysts suggested anticipated weakness would be softened by rising inventory investment in the Q3.
Absence of significant information
Despite the fact that today various institutions are going to publish various data about the American economy, ranging from consumer spending to inflation, none of them are expected to cause any specific volatility in the markets.
XAU/USD fails to climb above 55-hour SMA
As it was expected, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1,278.96 appeared to be too strong barrier to be crossed from the first attempt. Accordingly, the pair made a rebound but recovery of the gold was hindered by the slipping 55-hour SMA, which pushed it back to weekly S1 at 1,283.66. At the moment, the southern side remains too strongly protected by the above indicators to be successfully bypassed. The only chance to rapidly slip to the bottom is to gain an impulse from some significant fundamental event. However, there are no such types of events in economic calendar scheduled for today. In contrast, an uneasy geopolitical situation in the Pacific region is expected to continue to motivate investors to transfer their funds in less risky assets, such as gold.
Hourly Chart
A combined pressure of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1,278.96, the monthly S1 at 1,273.91 and approaching 100-day SMA as well as various geopolitical tensions in the short run are expected to help the gold to slightly recover against the buck. But from a larger ascending channel point of view, the buck eventually has to take the lead and push the pair through this barrier to the south. However, if it fails to do that, it would be possible to consider transformation of the above channel into a rising wedge.Daily Chart
Markets sentiment remains bearish
Traders of Dukascopy remain neutrally bearish on the price of gold, as 53% of open positions are short. In the meantime, 53% of pending commands are to sell the commodity.
OANDA Gold traders are bullish, as 58% of open positions are long. In the meantime, SAXO bank traders are similarly bullish, as 64% of open positions are also long.