- SWFX traders are 53% bearish
- 70% of pending orders in 700-pip range are set to SELL the gold
- Pair rebounds from 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1,278.96
- Upcoming Events: US Final GDP, Unemployment Claims
In result of a two day downfall, the pair encountered the another significant support level set up by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1,278.96. In short run, the gold is expected to restore some positions against the gold. But in larger perspective, the pair has to tend to reach the bottom edge of a dominant ascending channel.
1: The Commerce Department showed that new orders for the US-made capital goods rose more than anticipated 1.7% over the month of August, while shipments continued to increase, suggesting the strengthening of the US economy, despite an expected drag from Hurricanes Irma and Harvey. Moreover, sign of rising spending on equipment buoyed expectations for the Fed's December rate hike.
2: Janet Yellen sounded more hawkish, telling that the Fed is likely to raise rates so long as inflation growth keeps accelerating, and suggested the Central Bank to wary of making changes too gradually. Meanwhile, the Euro was influenced by uncertainties concerning the ECB monetary policy outlook, as Mr. Draghi and his colleagues failed to clarify the next moves on the QE tapering.
US Final GDP release
From fundamental point of view, Thursday will be marked by only one significant macroeconomic data release. Namely, at 12:30 GMT the Bureau of Economic Analysis will reveal the US Final GDP, which is expected to keep a 3% growth rate. However, swing traders should take into account that this event usually does not arouse especially high interest among other participants.
XAU/USD approaches significant support
Although previously the pair failed to break through the 1,290.93 level, a pressure from multiple technical indicators eventually pushed it to the bottom. As a result, the exchange rate reached the supposed yesterday's target at the 1,283.66 mark and represented the weekly S1. In theory, the buck has all means to drag the gold price down to the monthly S1, which is located at the 1,273.91 level and is additionally backed up by the 100-day SMA. However, in order to do that it has to break through the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1,278.96. In the short run these barriers a likely to force the pair to make a rebound. But from larger perspective, the pair has to pave the way through them and ultimately reach the bottom edge of the dominant ascending channel.
Hourly Chart
During the previous trading session the exchange rate encountered the first significant support, which consists of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1,278.96, the monthly S1 at 1,273.91 as well as the approaching 100-day SMA. In the short, run their combined pressure as well as various geopolitical tensions most probably are going to help the gold to slightly recover against the buck. But from a larger ascending channel point of view, the buck eventually has to take the lead and push the pair through this barrier to the south. However, if it fails to do that, it would be possible to consider transformation of the above channel into a rising wedge.Daily Chart
Markets sentiment remains bearish
Traders of Dukascopy remain neutrally bearish on the price of gold, as 53% of open positions are short. In the meantime, 53% of pending commands are to sell the commodity.
OANDA Gold traders are bullish, as 59% of open positions are long. In the meantime, SAXO bank traders are similarly bullish, as 62% of open positions are also long.