- SWFX traders are 55% bearish
- 67% of pending orders in 1000-pip range are set to BUY the gold
- Significant support near 1,324.00 – 1,326.00
- Upcoming Events: US Retail Sales, Empire State Manufacturing Index, Capacity Utilization Rate, Industrial Production and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
Due to strong pressure both from the top and from the bottom, the pair did not make any signifficant advances yesterday. Most probably, today the bullion will continue to move horizontally against the buck at least until a release of information on the US Core Retail Sales. This event might give the pair a necessary impulse to get out from the above limbo.
According to the Labour Department's report, the consumer inflation in the US showed a monthly rise of 0.4% in the month of August, with an annual gain of 1.7% in the same period. An increase in the CPI figures boosted expectations for the Fed rate hike in December, which supported bullish sentiment in EUR/USD additionally fuelled by the NK latest missile launch. The next direction of the pair will be determined by Friday's retail sales data.
The Labour Department revealed that the US producer prices accelerated growth at the strongest pace in four months amid an increase in gasoline prices. The report showed that the country's PPI for final demand rose 0.2% in August, slightly below expectations for a 0.3% increase. Wednesday's data were not quite as strong as the Fed would like to consider to support an increase in core consumer prices to the Banks 2% target.
US Retail Sales in focus
Even though in the middle of the day there will be a release a whole package of the US fundamental data, only one of it represents a real interest for traders, i.e. Core Retail Sales, as they give a objective outlook about developments in the American consumer spending.
XAU/USD stuck near 1,329.70
In line with expectations, yesterday the exchange rate did not manage to make any significant moves. From the top it was constrained by the 200-hour SMA, while from the bottom by the lower trend-line of a dominant ascending channel. From a general perspective, the rate is expected to continue to try to pave the path to the north, trying to reach by the end of the day at least the monthly R1 at 1,348.36. A release of information on the US Core Retail Sales, similarly to the yesterday's update on inflation, most likely will cause notable volatility in the markets. However, even in case of a positive result the buck is not expected to drag the pair out of the above formation.
Hourly Chart
Even though the pair stuck once again near the weekly S1 at 1,329.68, the ultimate goal in the larger perspective remains the same - the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level at 1,279.28.Daily Chart
Markets sentiment remains bearish
Traders of Dukascopy remain bearish on the price of gold, as 55% of open positions are short. In the meantime, 56% of pending commands are to buy the commodity.
OANDA Gold traders remain neutral, as open positions are 52% bullish. In the meantime, SAXO bank traders are neutrally bearish, as 51% of open positions are long.