The price for gold started the week by trading below the resistance of the 55 and 100-hour simple moving averages and the 1,745.50/1,747.50 zone.
Economic Calendar Analysis
On Tuesday, the US Consumer Price Index and Core Consumer Price Index could cause moves on all USD assets and pairs.
On Thursday, the US Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales are also bound to influence the value of the US Dollar.
Click on the link below to find out more about the data releases of this and other currency exchange rates.
XAU/USD short-term forecast
If the mentioned resistance levels force the price into a decline, the commodity price could look for support in the 1,735.00 and 1,730.00 levels. Afterwards, the support of the 200-hour simple moving average near 1,725.00 might keep the price from falling.
On the other hand, a failure of the 55 and 100-hour SMAs and the zone above 1,745.00 to keep the price down would most likely result in another test of the March and April high levels.
Hourly Chart
On the daily chart, the support zone of the March low levels is not made up only of the recent lows. Research the 2020 March high levels and the 2020 April to June low levels. The zone was providing both resistance and support during last year.
Most recently, the price passed the resistance line, which kept the metal declining throughout 2021. Namely, the described support zone provided enough support for the metal to break the resistance line.
The surge of the metal should test the 50.00% Fibonacci retracement level of the 2020 low and high levels at 1,763.74. In addition, the Fibo was being approached by the 55-day simple moving average.
Daily Candle Chart
Short term traders took profits
Since Friday, the sentiment on the Swiss Foreign Exchange was bullish, as 65% of open position volume was long.
Note that the gold sentiment is largely bullish at all times due to long term holders. It is quite rare for it to be below 70%. Due to that reason, it was assumed that short term traders had closed their long positions and possibly opened short positions.
Meanwhile, in the 1000-pip range around the metal's price the pending orders were 53% to buy the metal.