In general, the price was squeezed in between the support levels at 1,510.00 and the 1,525.00 level.
Economic Calendar Analysis
On Thursday, the US Retail Sales are expected to cause a move at 12:30 GMT. Note that this release will consist of two numbers.
The Core Retail Sales do not include auto sales. People buy cars on debt, paying the same amount of money each month and continue to buy the needed transportation no matter what. The elimination of auto sales improves retail sales as a measure of economic growth.
XAU/USD short-term forecast
On Wednesday, the XAU/USD exchange rate tried to surpass the resistance level formed by the monthly R3 at 1,521.59. During today's morning, the rate was testing the given level.
Note, that gold is supported by the 55– and 100-hour moving averages, currently located circa 1,510.00. Thus, yellow metal could breach the given resistance and continue to appreciate against the US Dollar.
Otherwise, it is likely, that the price for gold could consolidate in the area between the given support and resistance in the short term. It is unlikely, that bears could prevail, and the rate could drop lower than 1,492.92 due to the support of the 200-hour SMA.
Hourly Chart
The massive scale pattern of the weekly candle chart has been broken. The metal continues to surge. As this pattern has been broken, there is no technical resistance to the metal.
Meanwhile, note that the daily simple moving averages are located below the 1,300.00 level. It is a clear indicator of how much the metal is overbought.
However, the move is purely fundamental. Namely, it is a run to safety. Due to that reason the indicators have a small impact on the price.
Weekly Chart
Traders remain short on gold
Since the middle of Tuesday's London trading session the sentiment was 71% short.
The situation changed on Thursday, as 73% of open position volume was in short positions.
Meanwhile, in the 1000 base point range around the current metal's price the orders were bearish- 59% were set to sell, and 41% of orders were set to buy.
Previously, the orders were 59% to buy.