Latest Fundamental Event Report
Institute for Supply Management released the US Non-Manufacturing PMI data, which came out worse-than-expected of 53.7 compared with the forecast of 55.5.
Anthony Nieves, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee commented: "The NMI registered 53.7 percent, which is 1.4 percentage points lower than the June reading of 55.1 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector, at a slower rate. This is the index's lowest reading since August 2016, when it registered 51.8 percent. Respondents indicated ongoing concerns related to tariffs and employment resources. Comments remained mixed about business conditions and the overall economy."
Economic Calendar Analysis
This week there will be no more data releases occurring, which could impact the price of gold through the strength of the US Dollar.
XAU/USD short-term forecast
On Tuesday, the XAU/USD exchange rate breached the long-term ascending channel north. During today's morning, the rate was testing the resistance level—the monthly R2 at 1,487.41.
If the given resistance level does not hold, it is likely, that gold could continue to appreciate against the US Dollar in the nearest future. A possible upside target could be the psychological level at 1,500.00.
On the other hand, the exchange rate could trade sideways around the given monthly R2. Also, it is unlikely, that the price for golds could drop lower than 1,450.37 due to the support of the monthly R1 and the 100-hour SMA.
Hourly Chart
The massive scale pattern of the weekly candle chart has been broken. The metal continues to surge. As this pattern has been broken, there is no technical resistance to the metal.
Meanwhile, note that the daily simple moving averages are located below the 1,300.00 level. It is a clear indicator of how much the metal is overbought.
However, the move is purely fundamental. Due to that reason the indicators have a small impact on the price.
Weekly Chart
Traders still short gold
On Tuesday, on the Swiss Foreign Exchange 74% of open gold position volume was in short positions.
On Wednesday, 71% of open gold position volume was in short positions.
Meanwhile, in the 1000 base point range around the current metal's price the orders were bearish- 59% were set to sell, and 41% of orders were set to buy.