After almost touching the 1,345.00 level gold retraced back down to the 55-hour SMA.
The SMA, as expected, provided the needed support for the yellow metal to resume the surge.
On Thursday, all attention will be on the European Central Bank. At 11:45 GMT the Monetary Policy Statement will be published. On the release the EUR/USD has moved from 10 to 35 pips.
The event will be followed by the ECB press conference at 12:30 GMT. During the questions and answers session at the end of it the EUR is bound to make sharp moves.
At the same time the Canadian Trade Balance will be published. This event has caused moves from ten to sixty pips.
The week will end with the Canadian and US employment data being published at 12:30 GMT. This event consists of five different data sets being released.
For more details watch the Economic Calendar Overview. Moreover, feel free to ask questions for details.
XAU/USD short-term forecast
On Wednesday, the XAU/USD exchange rate tried to surpass the resistance level formed by the monthly R2 at 1,333.67. During today's morning, the rate was testing the given resistance.
Note, that gold is supported by the 55-hour moving average, currently located at 1,329.01. Thus, the price for gold could surpass the given resistance and go upwards. A potential target is the 1,345.00/1,350.00 range.
On the other hand, the exchange rate could trade sideways around the given resistance level. From a technical perspective, it is unlikely, that the price for gold could drop lower than 1,319.79 due to the support level formed by the 100-hour SMA and the monthly R1.
Hourly Chart
On the daily candle chart it can be observed that the rate broke the resistance of the both long term patterns.Most likely after the fundamental moves end a full review of the charts will be conducted.
Daily Chart
Traders remain short
Despite the continuation of the surge of the metal's price, trader remain short on it, as on the Swiss Foreign Exchange 64% of open gold position volume was in short positions on Thursday.
Meanwhile, in the 1000 base point range around the current price 60% of pending orders were set to sell the metal.
Despite the surge, traders were mostly shorting gold and suffering losses. Moreover, they were ready to open additional short positions.