After consolidating its gains by retracing down to the technical support of the 100 and 200-hour simple moving averages the yellow metal's price returned to the previous trading levels. Namely, on Tuesday morning the metal traded between 1,280.00 and 1,284.00.
In regards to the near term future, the price was expected to wait for the hourly SMAs to catch up and push it upwards.
This week all the action on the US Dollar from a fundamental side will be in the second half of the week. Meanwhile, there are large events to watch prior to that.
On Wednesday, at 02:00 GMT the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will make their rate announcement. This event has caused moves larger than 100 pips during the last two announcements. If you trade sudden moves, get on this, stay late or wake up early.
On Thursday, the usual data starts. At 12:30 GMT the Canadian Trade Balance and the US Producers Price Index will be released. These events can cause a move from five to eighty pips. The range is explained in the weekly Economic Calendar Overview video.
On Friday, there will be two times to watch the calendar.
At 08:30 GMT the UK GDP and Manufacturing Production will be published. This event can cause a move of fifteen to twenty pips.
At 12:30 GMT the Canadian Employment data will cause a move of about forty pips. At the same time the US Consumer Price Index release should cause a move of up to twenty pips. Combined they can have various impacts on the Forex market.
Watch this week's economic calendar analysis and leave comments with questions about the specifics.
XAU/USD short-term forecast
On Tuesday morning, the yellow metal traded sideways near the 1,282.00 level.
The pair was expected to wait for the support of the 55, 100 and 200-hour simple moving averages, which during the morning hours were located at 1,280.00. When these levels reach the commodity price, they should push the price to the resistance of the monthly pivot point at 1,287.27.
On the other hand, the rate might continue trading sideways, if the support of the SMAs is not strong enough.
Hourly Chart
On the daily candle chart it is observed that the metal has failed to pass the resistance of the 1,290.00 level.Meanwhile, note that the monthly support level is gone, as a new month has started. The price has no support as low as the 1,263.70 level on the daily candle chart.
Daily Chart
Sentiment remains unchanged
Since Monday, 62% of trader open position volume was in short positions.
Meanwhile, in the 1000 base point range around the current price 53% of pending orders were set to buy the metal.