The low level set as target by Dukascopy Analytics has been reached. Gold reached the 1,282.56 level during the second half of Monday's trading session.
In regards to the near term future, it is expected that the commodity price will reach new levels, as it is being pushed down by the 55-hour simple moving average.
Economic Calendar Analysis
This week has notable data releases that will both cause significant moves in various currency pairs and be covered by Dukascopy Analytics.
On Wednesday, the UK Consumer Price Index will be released at 08:30 GMT. Afterwards, at 12:30 the Canadian CPI and Trade Balance will be released. This is expected to cause the biggest impact during this week.
The data flow will end on Thursday. The European Manufacturing PMIs will be released at 07:15 GMT and 07:30 GMT. Dukascopy Analytics will cover the 07:30 GMT, as at that time the German PMI will be published. The German data causes the biggest reaction on EUR pairs.
An hour later, at 08:30 GMT, the UK Retail Sales will be published.
Last but not least, the Canadian and US Retail Sales will be published at 12:30 GMT. Both data sets combined could cause a move on the USD/CAD of up to 30 pips.
Meanwhile, check out previous data release covers and economic calendar analysis on the Dukascopy Webinars YouTube channel.
XAU/USD short term forecast
The yellow metal is expected to be pushed through the support at the 1,282.56 level by the 55-hour SMA.
In that case the commodity price would continue to decline as low as the 1,275.00 level. At that level the next technical support levels were located at.
On the other hand the commodity price could trade sideways until the mentioned SMA properly catches up to the price.
Hourly Chart
On the daily chart the yellow metal has passed below the 100-day simple moving average at 1,288.07. The technical level began to provide resistance to the price on Tuesday.This factor is another one of the many that signal that a decline of the commodity price will continue.
Daily Chart
Traders continue to short the metal
Traders continue to short gold. Since Monday, on the Swiss Foreign Exchange 61% of the total open position volume was in short positions.
Meanwhile, the trader set up pending orders in a 1000 base point range around the metal's current price reveal additional information.
Namely, trader pending orders in that range were set to buy in 68% of cases. The orders signal that traders expect a retracement back up after the recent decline.