- SWFX market sentiment is 72% bullish
- Pending orders in the 1000-pip range are set to buy in 62% of cases
- US CPI on Wednesday and US Retail Sales on Thursday
On Wednesday, gold prices remained at the lower trend line of a dominant ascending pattern. The rate remains at this critical level.
Latest Fundamental Event
The Federal Reserve released US Federal Funds Rate that came out in line with expectation of 2.25%. In addition, the FOMC Statement data release came out on Friday at 19:00 GMT.
Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex comments "Fed says little and does less. Recognizes strong economy and acknowledges moderation of business investment, with inflation near target. Nothing to do. No hint at money market pressures or weakness in housing. FOMC to market: See you in December. Gradual hikes to continue."
Retail Traders will be in focus for gold traders on Thursday
On Wednesday, at 13:30 GMT the US CPI and Core CPI data sets will be released.Thursday will be the last day with notable data releases. At 09:30 GMT the British will publish their retail sales data. Afterwards, at 13:30 GMT the US statisticians will publish their retail sector data.
For more in-depth analysis of this week's fundamental economic events watch the weekly Monday's Poking the Economic Calendar webinar, which is live each Monday at 12:00 both on Dukascopy telefision and YouTube.
XAU/USD short term forecast
In regards to the near-term future, the gold will move sideways to trade between the 50.00% Fibonacci retracement level at the 1,207.49 mark and the bottom boundary of the ascending large pattern line at the 1,195.00 mark.
However, the yellow metal could depreciate against the US Dollar during today's US CPI data release at 13:30 GMT to push the gold the trade near the monthly pivot point at the 1,213.84 mark.
Hourly Chart
From the daily chart the future looks simple. First possibility is a rebound and a surge up to 1,245.00 in the upcoming months.
Second possibility is the passing of the support of the dominant pattern. In that case the 1,184.00 level will be targeted, where the monthly S1 will be located until the end of month.
Daily Chart
Massive amount of buy orders
Traders remain long on gold. 23% of all open positions were long on gold. Although, note that there are a lot of gold holders not traders involved in this statistic.
Meanwhile, in the 1000 base point range 61% of trader set up orders were set to buy.
The percentage had declined gradually since Friday. The decline stopped on Wednesday, when the proportion of buy orders grew to 61% from 58% on Tuesday.