- SWFX market sentiment is 74% bullish
- Pending orders in the 1000-pip range are set to buy in 65% of cases
- The FOMC announcement at 19:00 GMT
Gold prices have retreated down to the 1,220 level. However, they continue to trade in the range between 1,220 and 1,235 during the past couple of trading sessions.
Latest Fundamental Event
Previously, oil prices increased volatility during the release of the US Crude Oil Inventories last Wednesday at 14:30 GMT. The one-minute candle gained 27 pips, or 0.41% right after the data release. In the next minutes the rate was trading at the 66.30 level.
The Energy Information Administration released the US Crude Inventories data that came out better-than-expected of 3.2M, compare to forecasted 3.6M.
Fatih Birol, the Executive Director of the International Energy Agency said: "One is high oil prices, and in many countries, they're directly related to consumer prices. The second one is global economic growth momentum slowing down".
FOMC incoming at 19:00 GMT
On Thursday, the US Federal Reserve's Federal Open Markets Committee will publish their statement and announce the Federal Funds Rate at 19:00 GMT. The event will be covered on a live webinar by Dukascopy Analytics.On Friday, at 09:30 GMT the UK GDP and Manufacturing Production data sets will be published. Afterwards, at 13:30 GMT US Producers Price Index will be out. Both events will be covered by Dukascopy Analytics.
XAU/USD short term forecast
In regards to the near-term future, the gold will try to trade upwards but most likely, it will be resisted by the SMAs due to a lack of any support levels. Possibly, the rate will be trading at the 1,220.00 level during the trading session.
Hourly Chart
On the daily chart the last couple of trading sessions have experienced low volatility in the borders of the ascending channel pattern.
Most likely the situation will remain unchanged until the 55-day simple moving average approaches and provides additional support to the commodity price and sends it up to the next resistance level.
On this chart the closest resistance level is located at the 1,245.00 level. At that level the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level is located at together with a monthly pivot point and the upper trend line of the ascending pattern.
Daily Chart
Traders don't abandon long positions
Since Tuesday 73% of traders were long on the yellow metal. On Thursday, already 74% were long. The data clearly indicated that the gold bulls don't care about the decline.
In addition, trader set up pending orders are also largely bullish. Namely, 70% of all trader set up pending sell or buy orders are set to buy.