- SWFX market sentiment is 74% bullish
- Pending orders in the 1000-pip range are set to buy in 54% of cases
- No large impact on gold from the US Elections
On Wednesday, yellow metal prices traded above the support of three notable simple moving averages. In addition, no technical resistance was located near by the price, which could stop it from a surge.
Latest Fundamental Event
Previously, oil prices increased volatility during the release of the US Crude Oil Inventories last Wednesday at 14:30 GMT. The one-minute candle gained 27 pips, or 0.41% right after the data release. In the next minutes the rate was trading at the 66.30 level.
The Energy Information Administration released the US Crude Inventories data that came out better-than-expected of 3.2M, compare to forecasted 3.6M.
Fatih Birol, the Executive Director of the International Energy Agency said: "One is high oil prices, and in many countries, they're directly related to consumer prices. The second one is global economic growth momentum slowing down".
A quiet week for data releases
All of this week's events, which are worth mentioning, are described below
On Wednesday, some traders will speculate on the publication of the weekly Crude Oil Inventories at 15:30 GMT. The event will be covered on a live webinar by Dukascopy Analytics.
In addition, on the same day the New Zealand's central bank will announce their Official Cash Rate at 20:00 GMT
On Thursday, the US Federal Reserve's Federal Open Markets Committee will publish their statement and announce the Federal Funds Rate at 19:00 GMT. The event will also be covered on a live webinar by Dukascopy Analytics.
On Friday, at 09:30 GMT the UK GDP and Manufacturing Production data sets will be published. Afterwards, at 13:30 GMT US Producers Price Index will be out. Both events will be covered by Dukascopy Analytics.
XAU/USD short term forecast
In regards to the near-term future, most likely, the gold will keep trading sideways to trade at the 1,235.00 level during the day. The 200-hour simple moving average should support the rate from a decline during Wednesday's trading session.
However, the yellow metal could depreciate during today's US Crude Oil Inventories data release at 15:30 GMT to trade at the 1,225.00 level.
Hourly Chart
On the daily chart the last couple of trading sessions have experienced low volatility in the borders of the ascending channel pattern.
Most likely the situation will remain unchanged until the 55-day simple moving average approaches and provides additional support to the commodity price and sends it up to the next resistance level.
On this chart the closest resistance level is located at the 1,245.00 level. At that level the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level is located at together with a monthly pivot point and the upper trend line of the ascending pattern.
Daily Chart
Long sentiment remains persistent
Traders remain long on gold. Namely, 73% of traders were long since Tuesday.
Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders are also largely bullish. Namely, 73% of all trader set up pending sell or buy orders are set to buy.