- SWFX market sentiment is 75% bullish
- 51% of pending orders in 1000-pip range are set to SELL Gold
- US Employment data in focus
Gold prices traded sideways on Friday in expectations of the US employment data set release at 12:30 GMT. The event beat the yellow metals price back below the 1,200.00 level.
For some time there hasn't been relevant data to the commodities sector or to the yellow metal's price. However, you can read further about the latest US Crude Oil Inventories data release, which caused a notable reaction on the charts.
The Energy Information Administration released the US Crude Levels data that came out lower-than-expected of negative 2.6M, compare to forecasted negative 0.7M. This data release shows the change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.
Dukascopy Bank SA comments:"The data release was unusual because the reaction on the oil price up immediately was followed by the price drop in the following minutes. The price drop most likely was caused by market participants, who took advantage of the increased liquidity and sold their oil assets."
US employment data at 12:30 GMT
On Friday, at 12:30 GMT three US employment data sets will be published. They are expected to cause a reaction in the financial markets larger than any other US data release.
Dukascopy Analytics will cover the data release live on the bank's webinar platform. The event will begin at 12:20 GMT.
XAU/USD short term forecast
In regards to the near future, the yellow metal will surge upwards due to a psychological barrier of the 1,200 mark and support of the 55-hour simple moving average and the 100-hour simple moving average, which should push the rate to the 1,206.00 level during today's trading session.
Note, that the 200-hour simple moving average at the 1,202.00 level might stop the rate and push gold back to the monthly PP at the 1,195.60 mark.
Hourly Chart
The recent surge has given a reference point to properly chart the long term pattern that will guide the yellow metal upwards to the 1,230.00 mark.
By watching the pattern and assuming that it will easily pass the 55-day SMA at 1,220.00 and the 50.00% Fibonacci retracement level at 1,212.00, it can be assumed that the upper trend line of the dominant pattern will be reached by September 20.
Daily Chart
Markets remain largely bullish
75% of SWFX market traders are going long on the pair. The sentiment has remained almost unchanged for a whole week.
Meanwhile, pending buy orders indicate that there might be additional buying going on in the future, as 58% of all waiting orders are set to buy the metal.
Meanwhile, at other marketplaces long term sentiment also remains persistent. At OANDA 75% of traders are long. Likewise, SAXO Bank traders were 69% long on the yellow metal's price.