- SWFX market sentiment is 72% bullish
- 52% of pending orders in 1000-pip range are set to SELL Gold
- US Retail at 12:30 GMT
The decline of the bullion has extended itself even more than expected. Namely, on Wednesday the yellow metal's price had reached below the 1,190.00 level.
Oil prices decreased after US Crude Oil Inventories data release on Wednesday at 14:30 GMT. The one-minute candle lost 34 pips, or 0.50%, but the post-reaction caused a drop of 45 pips or 0.66%. In next hours the market recovered to continue fluctuating in the 67.8 area.
The Energy Information Administration released the US Crude Inventories data that came out higher-than-expected. Instead of the expected negative 2.8 million, the data came out only 1.4 million negative.
US CPI at 12:30 GMT
On Wednesday look out for the US Retail Sales data release causing an unexpected bounce in the pricing of all the financial instruments that include the US Dollar. The data will be released at 12:30 GMT. Meanwhile, note that there will be a Dukascopy webinar coverage of the data starting at 12:20 GMT.
XAU/USD retreats even lower
The majority of Tuesday's trading session was spent with XAU/USD trading sideways with low volatility. This morning, some additional bearish pressure was introduced which resulted in a breach of the senior channel and a fall below the pair's year-and-a-half low at 1,190.00.
Technical indicators have returned to the oversold territory as apparent on the 1H chart, while those on the 4H one have failed to pick up momentum. This indicates that some decline might still be in sight today. The ultimate low should be the monthly S2 at 1,180.00.
In case bulls take over in this session, the yellow metal is expected to target the psychological 1,200.00 level.
Hourly Chart
Strong bearish momentum has guided XAU/USD during the last months. This has resulted in Gold losing already 13.40% against the US Dollar.
The metal made an attempt to regain some ground last week. However, it failed and on Monday there were no longer support levels available to the bullion that could stop it from plunging further.
Daily Chart
Massive amount of long gold positions
72% of SWFX market traders are going long on the pair. However, the sentiment might slightly decrease, as 53% of all trader set up orders are set to sell the metal.
OANDA traders are also bullish on the commodity with 79% of open positions being long today. Saxo Bank traders share the same sentiment with 70% long positions.
There are more than one conclusions, which can be made from the information. First, the larger brokerages with more long term players are more bullish on gold.
Second, the retail traders have no set up buy orders that would provide the needed momentum to push the commodity price higher in the near term future. Instead, sell orders were appearing since Tuesday.