- SWFX market sentiment is 66% bullish
- Pending orders in the 100-pip range are 61% to BUY
- US releases all over the calendar
On Tuesday it could be seen that the US Dollar had scored new low levels against the Japanese Yen. However, the range of volatility remained the same on the hourly chart, creating a range of around 20 base points.
The Census Bureau released two reports simultaneously, from which Retail Sales data came out better-than-expected, but Core Retail Sales came out in line with forecasts.
However, data was more like positive, the US Dollar lost its strength, which can be explained with the fact, that Federal Reserve Bank of New York revealed lower-than-expected Empire State Manufacturing Index data, even though index above zero indicates positive result overall.
Loads of minor releases
The day is set to be filled with various data and speeches from the US. However, there is an issue with all of them, except one. Namely, they are all unlikely to cause sudden swings in the currency exchange rates and commodity prices.
The one exception that was set to be covered by the Dukascopy research team was the release of the US Building Permits and Housing Starts at 12:30 GMT. That means that you have to tune in to our webinar platform at 12:20 GMT to follow the live cover of the release.
USD/JPY continues to edge lower
Despite technical indicators flashing bullish signals, the US Dollar was driven by strong downside momentum on Monday. During this time, the pair managed to breach the 100– and 200-hour SMAs and the prevailing seven-week channel circa 107.20.On Tuesday morning, the nearest support was set by the weekly S1 and the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement at 106.75 and a two-week support level at 106.66. The pair is expected remain in the 106.70/107.20 range during this session. It could still edge lower within the following hours prior to reversing northwards and testing the breached moving averages.
The southern barrier should hold firm, while the 107.10 area might actually surrender under the bullish pressure if solid US fundamentals add some upside volatility to the market.
Hourly Chart
It is still assumed that the patterns, which can be observed now, are too small and are only a part of a larger trend, which is still in the formation. >
Watch the daily chart in an order to try and spot the moment, when the new medium term pattern reveals itself.
Daily chart
SWFX traders are still on the long side, as 66% of open positions remained bullish during the morning hours. Furthermore, trader set up orders remain bullish, as 57% of trader set up orders were to buy the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen.
Meanwhile, the market sentiment of OANDA traders remains strongly bullish with 65% long positions. In addition, Saxo bank traders are 59% long in regards to this pair.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility