- SWFX market sentiment is 66% bullish
- Pending orders in the 100-pip range are 57% to BUY
- First notable data release is on Tuesday
After a period of decline the USD/JPY currency exchange rate has resumed the surge and reached new high level. The rebound occurred even before the pair reached the lower trend line of a mapped medium term channel up pattern.
The Bureau of Labour Statistics simultaneously released 3 reports on Friday: average hourly earnings, non-farm employment change and unemployment rate, from which only the first 2 had a notable impact on the exchange rate.
The move up in the currency pair was caused by lower-than-expected average hourly earnings data, while the downtick was driven by better-than-expected non-farm employment change figures.
First notable data release of the week
The first notable event of the week is set to occur during the day. Namely, the US CPI is set to be published at 12:30 GMT. Remember to tune in to the Dukascopy webinar platform ten minutes prior to the release to see what is to be expected.
In addition, the rest of the week will also have notable data releases that the Dukascopy research team will cover on the bank's live webinar platform. In general, each day at 12:30 GMT there will be a data release.
USD/JPY gains momentum on Tuesday
Minor downside risks dominated the USD/JPY exchange rate on Monday, as it closed the session with a 60-pip fall.The lack of bearish stimulus did not allow the Greenback to breach the combined support of the 100– and 200-hour SMAs circa 106.20. Thus, the Asian session started with a solid surge which erased all losses accumulated during the previous day.
The pair is currently trading in a two-week ascending channel.
Given that its lower boundary was not reached yesterday, the pair could reverse significantly its current market sentiment and go for a test of this line, the weekly PP and the 100-hour SMA at 106.40 during the first part of the day. The remaining session is likely to be dominated by the US inflation data released at 1230GMT.
Hourly Chart
There have been new developments in regards to the massive scale channel down pattern. Namely, after looking closely at the way the reference points for the most dominant channel they were adjusted to the exact high levels of the hourly candles. Meanwhile, the reference for the lower trend line was experimented with.
As a result of the experiment, it was discovered that the lower trend line of the most dominant channel has been reached. This indicates that the initial decline of the US Dollar against the Yen in the first months of 2018 has ended.
The above discovery was made on Thursday. Since then the upper trend line of the named channel down pattern has been pierced.
Daily chart
SWFX traders are still on the long side, as 66% of open positions were bullish during the morning hours.
However, trader set up orders remain bullish, as 54% of trader set up orders were to buy the US Dollar in favour to the Japanese Yen.
Meanwhile, the market sentiment of OANDA traders remains strongly bullish with 70% long positions. In addition, Saxo bank traders are 55% bullish in regards to this pair.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility