- SWFX market sentiment is 69% bullish
- Pending orders in the 100-pip range are 65% to BUY
- The week has ended
The short term patterns continue to be broken, as fundamentals dictate the rules on the currency pair's charts. Due to that reason, Dukascopy analysts are concentrating more on the long term outlook of the USD/JPY pair.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI release presented a stronger-than-anticipated data, causing a further Dollar strengthening.
The ISM stated that the US Manufacturing PMI increased from 59.1 in January to 60.8 in February, representing the highest mark since May 2004. The US manufacturing activity strengthened in the reported month mainly due to expending exports that are showing their highest growth rate since April 2011.
In fact, growing employment rate also was one of the factors driving the overall expansion in the domestic manufacturing sector.
Focus on next week
The economic calendars on Friday have nothing notable on them. Due to that reason swing traders are set to start watching next week's calendar and plan their week accordingly. Regarding the next week. Be sure to watch the various rate announcements at the middle of the week.
Meanwhile, US labour data will be released with the ADP payrolls on Wednesday and official employment data on Friday. These data releases will be covered by the Dukascopy research team on the bank's live webinar platform.
USD/JPY continues lower
The Dukascopy research team has abandoned the idea to map the USD/JPY with a short term pattern. The reason for the decision is that the US Dollar is too volatile against the Japanese Yen. The volatility is largely caused by politics and monetary policy.However, the larger scale descending trend has been confirmed and one can observe that the rate is going lower and lower.
Although, the currency pair does make stops near various pivot point levels.
By taking that into account, we expect the pair to next decline down to the 105.17 level where the next support is located at.
Hourly Chart
As there have been more than one adjustment to the long term descending pattern. It can be stated that there might be bias at play from a technical perspective.
Namely, due to the couple of variations of how the pattern can be drawn, there are fluctuations in various descending patterns, depending on who is at play in the market at the time. However, the trend is still downwards aimed in most long term scenarios.
Daily chart
SWFX traders are on the long side, as 70% of open positions were bullish during the morning hours. However, 65% of pending orders are to buy the Greenback.
Meanwhile, the market sentiment of OANDA traders remains strongly bullish with 70% long positions. In addition, the Saxo Bank's published market sentiment is 53% long
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility