- SWFX market sentiment is 60% bearish (-1%)
- 59% of pending orders in the 100-pip range are to SELL the Pound
- Strong support is located near the 112.50 mark
- Upcoming events: US Unemployment Claims, Japan's Final GDP q/q
The US private sector created 190K jobs in November, down strongly from the prior month, but in line with projections, the ADP report indicated, ahead of more comprehensive the US Labour Departments figures to be issued on Friday.
Meanwhile, another data showed the revision of the US unit labour costs, which was at an annualised 0.2% rate in the Q3, compared to the initially reported 0.5% rise.
Japan's Final GDP for Q3
Two fundamentals events should be mentioned today. The US is to release its weekly Unemployment Claims at 1330GMT. This event, however, is unlikely to affect the market in any way. Meanwhile, the Japanese Cabinet Office is to publish the country's Final GDP for the third quarter of 2017 at 2350GMT together with other minor data releases, such as the monthly Bank Lending and Current Account.
USD/JPY heads towards 112.70 as expected
As it was forecasted yesterday, after making a rebound from combined support set up by the weekly PP, the 200-hour SMA and the lower line of a junior descending channel the pair started moving in the opposite direction and managed to bypass two other MAs.The surge happened despite release of negative employment data, which means that markets are mainly focused on situation related to tax reform and the US government shutdown.
Today the upward movement is expected to continue as well, even though there is a high chance that it will be stopped, first, by resistance zone near the monthly PP and then by the 50% Fibonacci retracement level located at 113.00. However, a change in information landscape or aggravation of situation with North Korea might alter this generally bullish scenario.
Hourly chart
USD/JPY has been stranded below the 55-day SMA and the monthly PP for the third consecutive session. Even though the strong bullish sentiment was dominating the market on Thursday morning, it is yet to be seen if the aforementioned resistance cluster is breached.
In case the pair closes the given trading session just below this area, a northern breakout might occur on Friday.
Daily chart
The bearish SWFX sentiment has weakened by one percentage point, as 60% of open positions are short. Meanwhile, pending orders are at equilibrium for the second consecutive session.
OANDA traders are bullish on the pair, with 51% of open positions being long (unchanged from Wednesday). In addition, the number of open positions of Saxo Bank clients is 54% long (-1%).