- SWFX market sentiment is 55% bearish
- 51% of pending orders in the 100-pip range are to BUY
- Bank holiday in US and Japan
- Upcoming events: US Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, US Durable Goods Orders m/m, US Unemployment Claims, US Revised UoM Consumer Confidence, FOMC Meeting Minutes
Commerce Department stated that the US durable goods orders fell sharply 1.2% in October, while its core measure marked sligtly weaker increase of 0.4% in the same period.
However, the solid growth trend was sutained, pointing to the stronger contribution to the GDP in the Q4. Meanwhile, the FOMS minutes suggested that the key interest rate could be raised soon, if the medium-term prospectives remain upbeat.
Lack of fundamentals
On Thursday, no economic events that could affect the USD/JPY currency pair exist, as banks in both the US and Japan are closed due to Thanksgiving Day and Labour Thanksgiving Day, respectively.
USD/JPY falls to 111.10
In line with expectations, a release of data on the US Durable Goods Orders as well as the Fed Meeting Minutes only bolstered the breakthrough through the monthly S1 at 112.05. In result of the downfall, the Dollar lost 0.8% against the Yen and was stopped only by the bottom boundary of the currently active descending channel near the 111.10 mark.As the pair still remains within the pattern, the buck is expected to start a gradual recovery. But to due to beginning of the Thanksgiving holidays and reduced liquidity the surge might be postponed even until the next week.
To put it differently, this trading session the currency pair is likely to spend fluctuating between the weekly S1 at 111.40 from the north and support near the 111.10 from the south.
Hourly chart
Disappointing US data release mid-Wednesday and other fundamentals weighted heavily on the US Dollar during the second half of that session. As a result, the pair plunged past the monthly and weekly S1s and the 200- and 100-day SMAs. It is likely that the rate tries to recover some of these losses today. However, the aforementioned moving averages are likely to provide a strong resistance for the pair.
Daily chart
The bearish SWFX sentiment has weakened notably on Thursday, as 55% of open positions are short (-5%). Meanwhile, 57% of pending orders are to buy the Greenback.
OANDA traders have remained bullish on the pair, as 56% of open positions are long on Thursday (+4%). In addition, the number of open positions of Saxo Bank clients is 56% long (+2%).