- SWFX market sentiment is 60% bearish
- 57% of pending orders in the 100-pip range are to SELL
- Significant resistance is located near 112.40
- Upcoming events: US Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, US Durable Goods Orders m/m, US Unemployment Claims, US Revised UoM Consumer Confidence, FOMC Meeting Minutes
The National Association of Realtors reported that the US existing home sales rose more than anticipated in October, revealing 2.0% gain to a seasonally adjusted yearly rate of 5.48M units in the reported month.
The NAR noted that house prices were still under pressure due to the shortage of available properties, remaining beyond the levels acceptable for some first-time buyers.
FOMC Meeting Minutes
The economic calendar for this session includes several fundamentals that should be noted. The US is to start the day with its monthly (Core) Durable Goods Orders and the weekly Unemployment Claims at 1330GMT and the Revised Consumer Sentiment by the University of Michigan at 1500GMT. In addition, the Federal Reserve is to release its Meeting Minutes at 1900GMT.
USD/JPY approaches monthly S2
As there were no fundamental events that could positively affect value of the buck, the currency exchange rate continued moving to the bottom under the pressure from the 100-hour SMA.Right now, the currency pair is facing no obstacles to reach the monthly S1 located at the 112.04. Under normal circumstances the rate would make another rebound. However, in this particular case the clash most probably will match with release of data on the US Core Durable Goods Orders, which might either speed up the rebound or bolster the breakthrough.
The second option seems more viable from the point of view of new descending channel that consist of two reaction highs and two reaction lows. But even if the pair goes in the opposite direction, it is not expected to climb above the 112.62 resistance level.
Hourly chart
Despite being restricted by the 55-day SMA on Tuesday, downside risks managed to prevail early in this session and thus push the US Dollar below this line. Further decline was limited solely by the monthly S1 at 112.05. Even if the rate breaches this level, as well, the next support cluster formed by the 100- and 200-day SMAs at 111.70 should halt the bearish momentum.
By and large, bears are likely to dominate the market today.
Daily chart
The bearish SWFX sentiment has remained at the same level for the second consecutive session, as 60% of open positions are short. Meanwhile, pending orders are at equilibrium.
OANDA traders have once again turned bullish on the pair, as 51% of open positions are long on Wednesday. In addition, the number of open positions of Saxo Bank clients is 57% long (+1%).