On Friday, the USD/JPY was trading around the 105.00 level, as the rate from time to time pierced the resistance of this level only to return to trade below it.
Future scenarios depended on whether or not the resistance of the 105.00 mark holds.
Economic Calendar
Next week is expected to have a lot of data releases, which could impact the currency exchange rate.
On Wednesday, at 13:30 GMT, the US Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales could cause a move of 5.3 to 11.2 pips, as it has done since September. However, at the same time, the US Producer Price Index and Core Producer Price Index are set to be published. This event has caused moves from 4.4 to 14.8 pips.
If both data sets reveal a positive or negative surprise, compared to the market forecast, the impact could be combined. On the other hand, the data could contradict one another and cancel out the effect of an impact.
On the same day, at 19:00 GMT the FOMC Meeting Minutes PDF document will be released. Note that the impact of the meeting minutes occurs slowly not suddenly, as the market participants read and interpret the meeting minutes.
On Thursday, market participants are set to watch the weekly US Unemployment Claims at 13:30 GMT. However, this event has not caused any volatility since January 21, when a 10.4 pip move occurred.
The week will end for the USD/JPY with the US PMIs at 14:45 GMT. The release could cause a move from 3.0 to 28.6 pips. However, the November 28.6 pip move appears to be an anomaly, as without it the range would be 3.0 to 7.6 pips.
Click on the link below to find out more about the data releases of this and other currency exchange rates.
USD/JPY short-term daily review
During Friday morning hours, the USD/JPY currency pair was testing the resistance level formed by the Fibo 23.60% and the 200-hour SMA at 105.03.If the predetermined resistance holds, it is likely that the exchange rate could trade downwards within the following trading session. In this case the rate could decline to the 104.40 mark.
In the meantime, note that the currency pair could gain support from the 55– and 100-hour SMAs, as well the weekly S1 in the 104.70/104.80 area. Thus, the pair could target the 105.60 level.
Hourly Chart
On the daily candle chart, the 100-day simple moving average provided the rate with support at 104.40 and caused the recent retracement back up.
Daily chart
On Friday on the Swiss Foreign Exchange 62% of open position volume was in short positions.
On Thursday, the sentiment was 60% short.
Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders in the 100-pip range around the rate were 52% to buy. The orders were 62% to buy on Thursday.