USD/JPY has two scenarios

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

On Tuesday morning, the USD/JPY declined to the combined support of three hourly simple moving averages at the 105.50 mark.

Future forecasts were based upon what would happen at this level.

Economic Calendar



On Wednesday, note that some calendars show the FOMC Meeting Minutes at 18:00 GMT. This is a publication of the minutes without a rate statement. In the past, this event has not caused sharp moves, as the Meeting Minute impact comes on gradually while the markets read and analyse.

On Thursday, as always the US Unemployment Claims at 12:30 GMT might cause a minor move.

Click on the link below to find out more about the data releases.

USD/JPY short-term daily review

In the case of the rate passing the support of the hourly SMAs at 105.50, the rate would aim at the support of the pivot points near 105.35. If this level also fails, the rate could reach for the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level at 105.00.

On the other hand, the SMAs could hold and push the rate into testing the resistance of the 105.80 level and the weekly R1 simple pivot point at 105.77. In the case of the 105.80 failing, the rate would aim at the 106.00 mark.

Hourly Chart



On the daily candle chart, the rate is testing the resistance of the 55-day simple moving average. This level has pushed the rate down since the middle of July.

Daily chart




Short sentiment continues to grow

On Friday, traders of the Swiss Foreign Exchange were short, as 55% of all open position volume was in short positions. On Monday, the sentiment was 60% short.

By the middle of Tuesday, 65% of volume was short.

Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders in the 100-pip range were 65% to sell.

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