The USD/JPY has broken an ascending channel pattern by trading sideways. Namely, it has remained between a pivot point at 109.47 and the resistance of a 50.00% Fibonacci retracement level at 109.58.
The rate is expected to remain between these levels until the support of the 55-hour simple moving average approaches the pair. The SMA could push the rate higher and force it into breaking the resistance of the 50.00% Fibo.
However, take into account that the first notable release of next week will be already on Monday. At 14:00 GMT the US ISM Manufacturing PMI is set to be published.
Meanwhile, next week's scheduled event historical data tables have been published. Some major moves can be expected. Click on the link below to read the article.
USD/JPY short-term daily review
From the one hand, the exchange rate could reverse south in the nearest future. In this case the rate would have to surpass the monthly R1 at 109.39.However, note that the currency pair is supported by the 55-hour SMA at 109.42. Thus, if the Fibo does not hold, it is likely that some upside potential could prevail, and the pair could reach the upper boundary of the long-term descending channel at 109.80.
Hourly Chart
On the daily candle chart, one can zoom out and better observe the already mentioned Fibonacci retracement levels. They have been actively impacting the USD/JPY rate throughout 2019.
Daily chart
On Friday, 70% of open USD/JPY position volume on the Swiss Foreign Exchange was in short positions.
Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders were to sell. In the 100-pip range 87% of pending orders were to sell and 13% were to buy.
It could be assumed that traders are expecting a reversal after the surge that has occurred since November 20.