USD/JPY tests short-term channel

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

During Tuesday's morning, the USD/JPY exchange rate reached the upper boundary of the short-term ascending channel at 108.75.

If the given channel holds, it is likely, that a reversal south occurs in the nearest future.

Latest Fundamental Event

Bureau of Labor Statistics released the US Average Hourly Earnings data, which came out worse-than-expected of 0.2% compared with forecast 0.3%.

According the official release: "Total nonfarm payroll employment edged up in May (+75,000), and the unemployment rate remained at 3.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in professional and business services and in health care."

 

US data releases could impact USD/JPY pair



On Wednesday, June 12, the US CPI data release will happen at 12:30 GMT. Note, that previous release caused a thirteen-pip move. 

On Friday, June 14, the US Retail Sales data will be released at 12:30 GMT. Last time, the rate made a twelve-pip move.


USD/JPY short-term daily review

During the previous trading session, the USD/JPY currency pair reversed north from the 100-hour SMA at 108.34. During today's morning, the pair was testing the resistance level formed by the weekly R1 at 108.61.

It is unlikely, that some downside potential could prevail in the market due to the support cluster formed by the 55-, 100-, and 200-hour SMAs, as well the Fibo 38.20% in the 108.37/108.51 range.

However, if the short-term ascending channel does not hold, it is likely, that bulls could prevail in the market.

Hourly Chart



On the daily candle chart, a large descending channel pattern can be observed. 

Note, that the currency pair is supported by the Fibonacci 38.20% retracement at 108.43. Thus, some upside potential could prevail in the market. The rate could target the upper channel boundary located circa 109.00. 

Daily chart

Traders still go long

On Tuesday, 71% of all positions on the Swiss Exchange Market were long.

Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders were almost neutral as 53% of pending commands in the 100-pip range were set to sell.

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