- The Swiss traders are 64% bearish on the USD/JPY
- Trader pending orders in the 100-pip range are neutral
- Quiet week for fundamental data traders
The rate has managed to pass the 113.40 region, where previously it was stopped by a weekly pivot point. However, the surge has encountered another resistance level, which has stopped it.
Latest Fundamental Event
The Census Bureau released US Core Durable Goods Orders data that came out lower than expected of 0.1 compared with forecasted 0.4%. Moreover, the US Durable Goods Orders data came out together with the US Core Durable Goods Orders with the data lower-than-expected of negative 4.4% compared with the forecasted negative 2.2%.
"New orders for manufactured durable goods in October decreased $11.5 billion or 4.4 percent to $248.5 billion", the U.S. Census Bureau announced today.
Only data for USD/JPY is the US GDP on Wednesday
This week is the last one of the month. That means that it is bound to be empty in regards to macroeconomic data releases.First notable data release will occur this week on Wednesday. The US Preliminary GDP data will be published at 13:30 GMT. This data release is considered to be the most important among macroeconomic statistics. Although, it causes an increase of volatility around 10 to 20 base points.
On Wednesday, at 15:30 GMT the weekly US Crude Oil Inventories will be published and cause a bounce in oil prices.
On Thursday, the only notable macroeconomic scheduled event, but not a data release, will be the FOMC Meeting Minutes release at 19:00 GMT.
Last, but most important for data release traders, will be the Canadian GDP data release at 13:30 GMT. This event is expected to cause the most volatility that a data release can cause. Although, it will be only observable on Canadian Dollar pairs.
All of these events will be covered live by Dukascopy Analytics. The live coverages will begin ten minutes before the event. They can be watched on the Dukascopy Webinars platform and the YouTube channel.
USD/JPY short term daily review
The USD/JPY broke the resistance of the weekly R1 at 113.36 during a second attempt. After the breaking of the resistance the rate surged during the next two hours until it reached the upper trend line of a medium term ascending pattern. The rate's surge was forced into a retracement by the trend line.In general, the exchange rate is expected to continue to trade sideways between the weekly R1 at 113.36 and the weekly R2 at 113.74 until it does not face the resistance line of the ascending pattern.
Meanwhile, note that the 55-hour SMA should catch up to the rate. When that occurs, the surge is expected to resume, as additional support will signal a surge.
Hourly Chart
The previously speculated surge from the daily chart's perspective is taking place. The USD/JPY is surging. However, as the rate gets pushed higher day by day by the 55-day simple moving average, the rate will face the resistance of various pivot point levels.
Daily chart
By the middle of Monday's trading session 68% of traders were short on the USD/JPY. The pair was clearly in the oversold zone for the retail sector.
On Tuesday, 64% of open positions were short, indicating that the short term oriented Swiss Foreign Exchange positions are being closed.
In the meantime, trader set up orders in the 100 base point range have become neutral.
In general, during the recent surge some have bought the USD/JPY. Although, more buying is not planned by the retail sector for now. This strengthens the forecast of the rate trading sideways.