- SWFX market sentiment is 53% bullish
- 60% of pending orders in the 100-pip are set to BUY
- Combined webinar at 12:00 GMT
On Friday morning the USD/JPY currency exchange rate continued to surge, as it passed the resistance of the weekly R1 and approached the monthly R1, which stopped the rates surge near the 110.80 mark.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis released quarterly Gross Domestic Product data that came out lower-than-expected of 2.0%, and was also lower than the previous period.
According to Mario Blascak, the European Chief Analyst: "The largest positive contributions to GDP stem from nonresidential fixed investment, personal consumption expenditures, and exports. The biggest drag in PCE, exports, state and local government spending, federal government spending and a downturn in residential fixed investment. "
Canadian GDP at 12:30 GMT
The week will end with a Dukascopy Analytics webinar that will consist of an article presentation and a data release coverage.
The first part of the webinar will concentrate on the recently published central bank policy changing article, which introduces traders to the longer term situation and the background of the currency markets. This part will begin at 12:00 GMT.
The second part will consist of the live coverage of the monthly release of the Canadian GDP. The release is most likely going to cause a bounce in the currency exchange rates that involve the Canadian Dollar. The coverage will begin at 12:20 GMT.
USD/JPY reaches trend line
The US Dollar was driven by slight upside momentum on Thursday. The pair found support at the weekly PP, the 61.80% Fibo retracement and the 55– and 200-hour SMAs circa 110.20 and thus had reached the weekly and monthly R1s and a downward-sloping trend-line near 110.75 by Friday morning.It seems that the Greenback could be ready to breach this dashed trend-line that should result in a surge either today or early next week. A breakout above the monthly R1 would be followed by a test of the weekly R2 at 111.30.
In case this resistance is not breached, the rate should return back to the 110.20 area. This support is unlikely to be surpassed, as it is strengthened not only by technical indicators on the hourly but also on the 4H chart.
Hourly Chart
The additional information that the daily chart provides is that the currency exchange rate has the support of the 200-day simple moving average near the 110.20 cluster, which on Friday was providing support.
Meanwhile, there are no large scale, new notable patterns on the daily chart.
Daily chart
On Friday, 53% open positions of SWFX market traders were long. Previously, for the whole week the sentiment was slightly bearish. Moreover, it was a large decrease compared to the 60% experienced last week.
Meanwhile, trader set up orders were slightly bullish on the US Dollar throughout the week, as the proportion of buy orders ranged from 51% to 55%. On Friday, they had increased to the 55% level.
It can be deducted from these facts that Dukascopy traders took profits from their short positions during the fall on Monday. Afterwards throughout the week the retail traders of the Swiss Foreign exchange were indecisive in regards to the pair. However, on Friday it could be clearly seen that the bullish expectations are set via the set up pending orders.
OANDA traders remain bullish with 53% of open positions going long on the USD/JPY pair today.
Meanwhile, Saxo Bank traders are clearly neutral, as 50% of open Saxo positions are long.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility