- 67% of pending orders in the 100-pip range are to SELL the Pound
- 52% of open positions are bullish
- The nearest resistance is set by the 55- and 100-hour SMA at 1.4050
- Important for today: US Average Hourly Earnings m/m, US Non-Farm Employment Change, US Unemployment Rate, Fed Chair Powell and BOE Governor Carney to speak
The Pound is likely to edge higher to test the 1.4050 level.
The British Pound weakened against the Greenback, following the UK services PMI data release on Thursday. The GBP/USD currency pair lost only six pips, or 0.05%, to continue fluctuating and going even lower to the 1.4016 level.
The Markit revealed lower-than-expected data in Britain's services purchasing managers index in March. Even though the data came out over 50.0, which indicates positive growth, it stepped lower to 51.7, compared to 54.5 in the prior period. Employment growth has reached a three-month low, and Gross Domestic Product growth rate has slid down to incredibly low of 0.15%, just in March alone.
US employment data
The US Bureau of Labour Statistics is set to release the Average Hourly Earnings, the Non-Farm Employment Change and the Unemployment Rate for March at 1230GMT. It is forecasted that the average hourly pay has increased by 0.3% during the given month, compared to a slight advance of 0.1% in February.
The Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney is set to address public at the International Climate Risk Conference for Supervisors, while the Chair of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell will speak about the economic outlook at the Economic Club of Chicago at 1515GMT and 1730GMT, respectively.
GBP/USD leaves range
Following an unsuccessful attempt to breach the 200-hour SMA and the weekly PP at 1.41 early on Thursday, the bearish sentiment started to guide the Sterling lower. As a result, it finally breached the four-day narrow trading range and fell down to a support cluster formed by a short-term trend-line and the monthly PP near 1.40.The pair's inability to push below this level and reach the senior channel at 1.3950 does show that it might provide an unbreakable psychological barrier. Technical indicators are likewise neutral, suggesting that a significant fall should not occur today. On the contrary, it is more likely that the Pound reverses to the upside and targets the 55– and 100-hour SMAs located at 1.4050.
This session includes several noteworthy fundamentals that should introduce volatility.
Hourly chart
The Sterling has been appreciating gradually against the US Dollar since the beginning of March – the movement which has been guided by the 55-day SMA.
The previous week marked a change is sentiment, as the pair fell from its two-month high of 1.4240 towards the aforementioned 55-day moving average located at 1.40. It is likely that this line guides the pair during the following sessions, especially when being reinforced by the monthly PP, the weekly S1 and the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement. A breakout south could be followed by depreciation in the medium-term down to the 100-day SMA circa 1.38.
Daily Chart
The SWFX market sentiment has turned bullish, as 52% of open positions are long in this session. Meanwhile, 63% of pending orders are to sell the Sterling (+5%).
OANDA traders have once again turned bearish on the Pound with 56% of their open positions being short (+4%). Saxo Bank clients are likewise bearish with 54% holding short positions (remains unchanged).
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility