GBP/USD declines back to 1.2590/1.2610

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
The 1.2750 level held and caused a decline of the Pound. Moreover, the decline was massively impacted by the lower than expected UK Consumer Price Index release. Namely, markets expected annual inflation to be down from 4.6% to 4.3%, but the actual number was 3.9%. The major decline of inflation signals that the central bankers of the United Kingdom could reduce interest rates earlier than previously expected.

The follow up decline eventually reached the major support zone at 1.2590/1.2610. The range held and a recovery to 1.2700 occurred during the first part of Thursday's trading.

Economic Calendar



On Thursday, not the publication of the US Final GDP at 13:30 GMT. This is the final of the three quarterly US GDP releases. The United States release quarterly Gross Domestic Data over a span of a quarter. Data is published in three releases – Advance, Preliminary and Final. The most impact comes from the Advance GDP, and the least is from the upcoming Final GDP.

On Friday morning, the UK Retail Sales data could impact the Pound at 07:00 GMT.

Also on Friday, the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index at 13:30 GMT. The change of the index shows how inflation impacts consumers. It is different from the CPI with the fact that it measures only goods that are consumed by individuals.

GBP/USD hourly chart analysis

A move above 1.2700 might be slowed down by the 1.2715/1.2730 range, before the 1.2750 level would be tested again. Higher above, the GBP/USD would face the resistance of the 1.2780/1.2795 range, the 1.2800 mark, the weekly R1 simple pivot point at 1.2812 and the August high level at 1.2819.

In the meantime, a decline could find some support in the 1.2650 level and the 200-hour simple moving average. Below these levels, take into account the mentioned 1.2590/1.2610 range and the 1.2550 level. In addition, it appears that the 50 and 100-hour SMAs and the weekly simple pivot point at 1.2656 were not able to impact the rate.

Hourly Chart

GBP/USD daily candle chart analysis

On the daily candle chart, resistance is provided by the 1.2800/1.2850 range. This range kept the pair down in June and August. A move above it could encounter resistance in the 1.3000 mark, before the rate reaches the July high levels above 1.3100.

On the other hand, it appears that the decline would look for support in the 1.2600 mark and the ascending trend line which has pushed the pair up since October.

Daily chart


Traders are short



On Tuesday, positions were 63% short. Despite the recovery, traders were still short. Moreover, more volume was in shorts positions. In the meantime, pending orders were 58% to buy.

By mid-Thursday, traders were 55% short. It could be the case that some have taken profits. Meanwhile, pending orders were 55% to buy.

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