GBP/USD breaks above summer high zone

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
The lower than expected US inflation caused a drop of the US Dollar. The GBP/USD surge almost reached the 1.2450 mark, before retracing to find support at 1.2350. At mid-Wednesday the pair had approached and found resistance in the 1.2400 mark.

Economic Calendar



Later on, the top event of them all will take place. At 19:00 GMT, the US Federal Reserve will release its Federal Open Market Committee Statement and Economic Projections. The central bank is expected to hike its base interest rate from 4.00% up to 4.50%.

On Thursday, at 12:00 GMT, the Bank of England is going to announce its interest rate decision. The central bank is most likely going to take into account the decision of the Federal Reserve. Note that the BoE and the ECB have scheduled their rate decision meetings in the aftermath of the US rate announcement.

Later on, at 13:30 GMT, the US Retails Sales data and Empire State Manufacturing Index might cause an adjustment in the value of the US Dollar.

The week will end with the publication of Markit Services and Manufacturing sector Purchasing Managers Index survey data. United Kingdom data is set to be published at 09:30 GMT. The UK data is followed by US data at 14:45 GMT.

GBP/USD short-term view

In regards to near future, fundamentals continue to dictate the moves. At 19:00 GMT, the US Federal Reserve is set to announce its interest rate hike. The markets expect a 0.50% interest increase. Afterwards, at 19:30 GMT, the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell will host a press conference, during which the future plans of the US Dollar's policymakers will be revealed.

Hourly Chart

GBP/USD daily chart's review

On the daily candle chart, the pair has breached the summer high level zone at 1.2275/1.2330. The zone could turn into support.

Above the summer high level zone, take into account the April and May resistance at 1.2610/1.2660.
Daily chart


Traders remain short


Before the US CPI, traders were bearish, as 60% of trader open position volume on the Swiss Foreign Exchange was in short positions.

In the meantime, pending orders in a 100-base point range around the pair were 60% to sell the GBP/USD.

On Wednesday, the sentiment was 62% short and pending orders were 68% to buy.

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