In the aftermath of the US employment release, the EUR/USD still trades between two ranges of support and resistance. Namely, resistance is provided by the 1.0840/1.0850 range and support is found at 1.0790/1.0800.
Meanwhile, open position data indicates that Dukascopy traders have booked profits and went short. Open positions were 57% long on Thursday. On Monday, traders were already 67% short.
Economic Calendar Analysis
This week, the markets could move due to the testimony of the US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony before the US Congress. New information could move the US Dollar.
On Thursday, a data release could move the financial markets. The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the US Consumer Price Index data sets at 12:30 GMT. Higher than expected inflation would indicate that the US Fed cannot cut interest rates. Lower inflation would signal that rate cuts are possible.
On Friday, more inflation data will be published. The US Producer Price Index data sets will reveal how prices have changed at the manufacturing level. Due to this release coming after the CPI, it is highly likely that the reaction will be minor.
EUR/USD hourly chart analysis
A move above the resistance range of 1.0840/1.0850 could be caused by the approaching hourly simple moving averages that have shown to be capable of pushing the rate higher. A move above 1.0850 is expected to face resistance in the weekly R1 simple pivot point at 1.0883. Higher above, the 1.0900 mark and the weekly R2 at 1.0929 could slow down the Euro, before the 1.1000 mark is reached.On the other hand, a decline of the Euro against the US Dollar could look for support first in the 50-hour simple moving average and then the ascending 100-hour SMA. Below these two levels note the 1.0790/1.0800 range and the weekly simple pivot point at 1.0797. Further below these levels, note the combination of the ascending 200-hour SMA and the weekly S1 simple pivot point at 1.0750/1.0760.
Hourly Chart
EUR/USD daily chart's review
On the daily candle chart, the pair's recovery has managed to break the resistance of the 50 and 100-day simple moving averages. However, the 200-day SMA is still acting as resistance at 1.0830.A move above the moving average could encounter resistance at previous resistance levels that are near round exchange rate levels. If all of these levels fail, the 1.1130/1.1200 zone will come into play.
In the case of a decline of the pair, it would have to reach below the 50 and 100-day SMAs, before looking for support in the 1.0635/1.0700 range.
Daily chart
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Traders go short
After the US Employment data publication, Dukascopy traders were bearish on the EUR/USD, as 67% of open position volume is in long positions.
Meanwhile, pending orders in the 100-pip range around the current rate are 65% to sell the Euro against the US Dollar.
Before Friday's events, traders were 57% long and orders were 60% to sell. It appears that after the fundamental events, traders have booked profits and went short.