- SWFX market sentiment is 64% bullish (+1%)
- 64% of pending orders in 100-pip range are to SELL the Euro
- Upcoming fundamental events: Italian 10-y Bond Auction, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, US Preliminary GDP q/q
The common European currency managed to regain some lost positions on Wednesday morning; strong resistance ahead.
The Greenback weakened against the Eurozones's single currency, following the US CB Consumer Confidence data release on Tuesday. The EUR/USD currency pair gained one pip, or 0.01%, to continue fluctuating in the 1.1567 area.
The Conference Board Inc. released Consumer Confidence data that came out lower-than-expected of 128.0, compared to the 128.7 in the previous period.
"Overall, confidence levels remain at historically strong levels and should continue to support solid consumer spending in the near-term," Lynn Franco, director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board, said.
US in focus
The United States is to release two important data sets in this session, namely, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and the Preliminary GDP for Q1Y2018 at 1215GMT and 1230GMT, respectively. The forecast for the latter remains at 2.3% on a quarterly basis.
In terms of fundamentals of less importance, the Italian Department of Treasury is to conduct a 10-year Bond Auction. The time of this event remains tentative.
EUR/USD influenced strongly by fundamentals
Technical indicators are located in the oversold territory. This should point to a soon recovery. However, it seems that the given political uncertainty is dominating over any technical signals this week, suggesting that the pair might still edge lower down to the bottom channel line or the weekly S3 at 1.1450 and 1.1405, respectively.
In terms of resistance, the Euro faces the 55– and 100-hour SMAs circa 1.16. This level should not be surpassed in this session.
Hourly Chart
The common European currency has fallen considerably against the US Dollar since mid-April which marks a 5.95% plunge within a couple of weeks.
As apparent on the daily chart, this bearish momentum has allayed during the past two weeks, thus pointing to a soon change in direction. Technical indicators are likewise starting to stabilise in the oversold territory.
The nearest support is provided by the monthly S3 at 1.16. This level should not be breached.
Daily Chart
Bulls remain in charge
EUR/USD remains strongly bullish with 64% of open positions being long (+1%).
The outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is as follows: the Euro is 59% bullish and the US Dollar is 62% bearish.
OANDA traders are bullish on the Euro with 57% of open positions being long today (-2%). The market sentiment of Saxo bank has once again turned bullish, as its clients are holding 52% long positions.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility