- SWFX market sentiment is 63% bullish
- 56% of pending orders in 100-pip range are to SELL the Euro
- Quiet day in terms of fundamentals
- Upcoming fundamentals: ECB Monetary Policy Accounts, US Unemployment Claims and Existing Home Sales, FOMC Members Dudley and Bostic to speak, Eurogroup meetings
EUR/USD is targeting the 55- and 100-hour SMAs near 1.1760 early on Thursday; a breakout of this area should send the pair to 1.18.
The Greenback weakened against the Eurozone's single currency, following US Retail Sales data release on Tuesday. The EUR/USD currency pair gained only 2 pips, or 0.02%, to continue fluctuating in the 1.1805 area.
The Census Bureau released two data sets simultaneously, where Residential Building Permits for the month of April came out in line with a forecast of 1.35M, moreover, the same number was released in the previous period.
The US Dollar's slight weakening may be affected due to the lower-than-expected Housing Starts data of 1.29M, compared to the forecast of 1.32M.
ECB Monetary Policy Accounts
The most important fundamental that could shake the pair in this session is the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts to be released at 1130GMT. It provides in-depth insights about which economic factors influenced the ECB Governing Board's monetary policy decision during its most recent meeting.
Some fundamental events of intermediate importance are likewise published today, such as the US weekly Unemployment Claims and Existing Home Sales at 1230GMT and 1400GMT, respectively. Meanwhile, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York William Dudley is due to speak on reference rate reform at the BOE's Markets Forum at 0815GMT, while his Atlanta counterpart Raphael Bostic will deliver opening remarks at a research event on technology-enabled economic disruptions at 1435GMT.
EUR/USD: bears could still prevail today
The pair failing to accelerate mid-Tuesday following a bullish breakout from the 55– and 100-hour SMAs was an early indication of a soon weakening of EUR/USD. This scenario was fulfilled yesterday when the Euro lost 78 pips against its American counterpart and fell below the previous 2018 low of 1.17. The given fall was stopped by the weekly S1 located at 1.1685.It is likely that the Euro tries to approach the aforementioned SMAs near 1.1760 during the following hours. Given that they have restricted effectively any attempts to accelerate during the past week, this area is unlikely to surrender today (except if fundamental events cause a strong surge north up to 1.18).
Technical signals still remain bearish, thus suggesting that today's target should be the weekly S2 at 1.16.
Hourly Chart
The common European currency continues to fall against the US Dollar for the third consecutive week. This massive decline has sent daily technical indicators in the strongly oversold territory.
Even if some bearish sentiment is still to prevail this week, the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1740 is unlikely to be breached before the pair starts a new medium-term surge.
Daily Chart
Bulls remain in charge
EUR/USD remains strongly bullish with 63% of open positions being long.
The outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is as follows: the Euro is 59% bullish and the US Dollar is 62% bearish.
OANDA traders are increasingly bullish on the Euro with 59% of open positions being long today (+2%). Saxo Bank clients share the same sentiment, as 51% of open positions are now long, compared to 51% short on Wednesday.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility