- SWFX market sentiment is 65% bullish (+1%)
- 64% of pending orders in 100-pip range are to SELL the Euro
- Upcoming fundamental events: Euro zone's Flash GDP q/q, German ZEW Economic Sentiment, US (Core) Retail Sales m/m, Empire State Manufacturing Index, FOMC Member Williams to speak
A breakout from the narrow range between the 55- and 200-hour SMA is expected to determine the pair's direction in this session.
The Greenback weakened against the Eurozone's single currency, following US CPI data release on Thursday. The EUR/USD currency pair gained 40 pips, or 0.34%, in the 10 minute timeframe, however reversed later on and retraced back to where it was before the release.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released two datasets simultaneously from which Consumer Price Index came out lower-than-expected of 0.2%, compared to negative 0.1% in the previous period. Similarly, Core Consumer Price Index too came out lower-than-expected of 0.1%, compared to 0.2% in the previous month.
The Department of Labor released Unemployment Claims data at the same time, which came out better-than-expected of 211K.
US Retail Sales at 1230GMT
This trading session is full of fundamentals from both the Euro zone and the US. The Eurostat will publish the Flash GDP for the first quarter of 2018 at 0900GMT. The German ZEW Economic Sentiment is to be published at the same time.
The US Census Bureau is set to release the (Core) Retail Sales for the previous month together with the Empire State Manufacturing Index at 1230GMT. The President of the Federal Bank of San Francisco John Williams is due to speak at the Economic Club of Minnesota May Luncheon at 1645GMT.
EUR/USD falls from 1.20
It is expected that the pair pushes lower during the following hours until the US Retail Sales are published at 1230GMT; this in turn could introduce volatility in the market. In case the 100-hour SMA and the weekly PP at 1.19 are breached, the Euro is likely to target 1.1860/80.
Meanwhile, a failure to do so should result in the pair surpassing the weekly R1 at 1.20. This move might be an early indication that the expected medium-term surge is to begin soon.
Hourly Chart
The common European currency continues to fall against the US Dollar for the third consecutive week. This massive decline has sent daily technical indicators in the strongly oversold territory.
This decline of the Euro has continued down to a 2018 low of 1.1850. The rate reversed near the monthly S1 at 1.1825 on Wednesday, but nevertheless remains pressured by the 200-day SMA near 1.20. Thus, it is likely that the Euro hinders near this area for several sessions prior to resuming its general movement north.
Daily Chart
Bulls remain in charge
EUR/USD remains strongly bullish with 65% of open positions being long (+1%).
The outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is as follows: the Euro is 57% bullish and the US Dollar is 62% bearish.
The market sentiment of OANDA has decreased by three percentage points to 52% long positions. Meanwhile, Saxo Bank clients still remain bearish with 53% of open positions being short (-1%).
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility