- SWFX market sentiment is 57% bearish
- 55% of pending orders in the 100-pip are to BUY
- Empty Monday, join the weekly review
On Monday morning the US Dollar surged against the Japanese Yen, as the currency exchange rate had managed to pass the combined resistance of a pivot point and all of the SMAs, which are used in Dukascopy analysis.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released two datasets simultaneously from which Consumer Price Index came out lower-than-expected of 0.2%, compared to negative 0.1% in the previous period. Similarly, Core Consumer Price Index too came out lower-than-expected of 0.1%, compared to 0.2% in the previous month.
The Department of Labor released Unemployment Claims data at the same time, which came out better-than-expected of 211K.
Empty session on Monday
There are no notable macroeconomic releases set to occur on Monday. It is no surprise, as most Mondays are empty sessions for macroeconomic swing traders.
However, tune in to the Dukascopy research webinar at 12:00 GMT. Our analysts will be looking at the economic calendar and pick out the data releases, which will be covered during this week. Main criteria will be the size of a sudden correction in currency exchange rates following a data release.
Moreover, participants will have available the live chat. By using that one can ask questions live to the presenters.
USD/JPY unable to overcome 109.45
As apparent on the chart, the USD/JPY exchange rate remained stable on Friday and fluctuated in a narrow range between the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement and the 100– and 200-hour simple moving averages.The pair did breach the bottom boundary of an eight-week channel; thus, the current dominant pattern has become a symmetrical triangle. In line with this pattern, the Greenback should test its bottom line at 109.00 prior to reversing to the upside once again. This scenario is likely due to the strong resistance at 109.40. This expected fall might even exceed the triangle and could be limited solely by the weekly S1 at 108.80.
On the other hand, a breakout of 109.45 would confirm the strong bullish sentiment that is likely to guide the US Dollar higher for a few sessions.
Hourly Chart
On the daily chart, an ascending channel pattern remains in force and it is expected that the rate will gain additional strength. Namely, the resistance of the 110.00 level is set to be challenged next.
Daily chart
SWFX traders are bearish on the US Dollar, as 57% of open positions were short during the morning hours.
Trader set up orders are bullish with 57% of them being set to buy the Greenback.
The market sentiment of OANDA traders is strongly bullish with 58% of them holding long positions. In addition, the number of long positions of Saxo bank traders is 58%.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility