- SWFX market sentiment is 64% bullish (-2%)
- 64% of pending orders in 100-pip range are to SELL the Euro
- Upcoming fundamental events: FOMC Member Mester to speak
A strong support cluster that should limited EUR/USD is located near 1.1920.
The Greenback weakened against the Eurozone's single currency, following US CPI data release on Thursday. The EUR/USD currency pair gained 40 pips, or 0.34%, in the 10 minute timeframe, however reversed later on and retraced back to where it was before the release.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released two datasets simultaneously from which Consumer Price Index came out lower-than-expected of 0.2%, compared to negative 0.1% in the previous period. Similarly, Core Consumer Price Index too came out lower-than-expected of 0.1%, compared to 0.2% in the previous month.
The Department of Labor released Unemployment Claims data at the same time, which came out better-than-expected of 211K.
Lack of fundamentals today
No fundamentals are scheduled for today. This session is a complete contrast to tomorrow when several important data sets are to be released.
EUR/USD unlikely to show big changes today
The EUR/USD exchange rate has managed to uphold its upward momentum since last Wednesday. Being supported by the 55– and 100-hour SMAs, bulls strengthened their bullish sentiment, thus allowing the Euro to dash through the 200-hour moving average. Further advance above 1.1960 was limited by the monthly S1.The pair's consolidation since mid-Friday might suggest that it might be tended south in this session. But given lack of fundamental releases today, it is unlikely that the Euro falls below the 1.19 mark where the combined support of the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs is located. Thus, it might be located near the psychological 1.20 level on Tuesday morning.
In terms of upside potential, gains could be capped near the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement at 1.2050.
Hourly Chart
The common European currency continues to fall against the US Dollar for the third consecutive week. This massive decline has sent daily technical indicators in the strongly oversold territory.
This decline of the Euro has continued down to a 2018 low of 1.1850. The rate reversed near the monthly S1 at 1.1825 on Wednesday, but nevertheless remains pressured by the 200-day SMA near 1.20. Thus, it is likely that the Euro hinders near this area for several sessions prior to resuming its general movement north.
Daily Chart
Bulls remain in charge
EUR/USD remains strongly bullish with 64% of open positions being long (-2%).
The outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is as follows: the Euro is 52% bullish and the US Dollar is 62% bearish.
The market sentiment of OANDA has increased by one percentage point to 55% long positions. Meanwhile, Saxo Bank clients still remain bearish with 54% of open positions being short.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility