- SWFX market sentiment is 64% bullish
- 58% of pending orders in 100-pip range are to SELL the Euro
- Bank Holiday in Germany, Italy and France
- Upcoming fundamental events: US ISM Manufacturing PMI
The 55-hour SMA should continue guiding the pair in this session.
The Greenback weakened against the Eurozone's single currency, following the US Advance GDP data release on Friday. The EUR/USD currency pair gained almost nothing, to continue fluctuating in the 1.2385 area.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis released Advance Gross Domestic Product data for Q1 2018, but despite the fact that the data came out better-than-expected of 2.3%, compared to the 2.0% estimate, the EUR/USD currency pair moved upwards after bouncing a little bit lower at the moment of the report. The move upwards may be caused by the fact that in the previous quarter Advance GDP data was 2.6%, which was about 0.3% higher than in the latest quarter.
ISM Manufacturing PMI
The only significant data release in this session is the US Manufacturing PMI published by the Institute for Supply Management at 1400GMT. The given index is expected to have weakened to 58.4 during the month of April.
Meanwhile, banks in Germany, France and Italy are closed today due to Labour Day.
EUR/USD should try moving north
EUR/USD was driven by downside risks on Monday, as a move above the 1.2140 mark was restricted by the 55-hour SMA and the 50.00% Fibonacci retracement. As a result, bears pushed the rate down to 1.2070. The pair, however, halted at this four-month low reached on Friday, thus pointing to a possible change in sentiment.A massive fall is not expected to occur in this session. The daily low is should be the same as yesterday—the weekly S1 and the 61.80% Fibo retracement near 1.2035. It is more likely the Euro tries to push higher; however, some important resistance levels, including the 55– and 100-hour SMAs and the weekly PP, still need to be surpassed to allow further advance. These levels might hinder the pair for some hours, but the general direction should nevertheless remain north.
Hourly Chart
Last week brought major losses for the Euro as a result of which it plunged by 2.18% against the Greenback. Along the way, the 100-day SMA, the weekly PP and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement were breached circa 1.22.
Some downside potential is still apparent in the market this week, with the nearest support being formed by the weekly S2 and the 200-day SMA at 1.20. Even if the pair falls down to this cluster, a movement south is unlikely to follow. Instead, the Pound should re-approach the 1.22 territory.
Daily Chart
Bulls grow stronger
EUR/USD remains strongly bullish with 64% of open positions being long.
The outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is as follows: the Euro is 52% bullish and the US Dollar is 59% bearish.
The market sentiment of OANDA remains bearish today, as 51% of its traders are holding short positions (-2%). Saxo Bank clients are also bearish with 57% of open positions being short (-2%).
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility