- SWFX market sentiment is 64% bullish (-1%)
- 57% of pending orders in 100-pip range are to SELL the Euro
- Strong resistance at 1.2165
- Upcoming fundamental events: ECOFIN meetings, US Core PCE Price Index m/m and Personal Spending m/m, Chicago PMI
The Euro was pressured by the 55-hour SMA early on Monday which is likely to push EUR/USD lower.
The Greenback weakened against the Eurozone's single currency, following the US Durable Goods Orders data release on Thursday. The EUR/USD currency pair gained only eight pips, or 0.07%, to continue fluctuating in the 1.2187 area.
The Census Bureau released two data simultaneously, where Core Durable Goods Orders came out less-than-expected of 0.0%, however Durable Goods Orders came out better-than-expected of 2.6%. Moreover, Unemployment Claims turned out to be 209K in March.
However, the biggest fluctuations in the EUR/USD currency pair were made during the European Central Bank president Mario Draghi speech, where the real action started to take place right after the 12:30 GMT.
No major market movers today
This week is likely to start calmly for the EUR/USD exchange rate, as this session includes only three fundamental releases and all of moderate importance. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis is set to publish the Core PCE Price Index and Personal Spending for March at 1230GMT. The Chicago PMI is published at 1345GMT.
In addition, the EU's Economic and Financial Affairs Council meetings are taking place today.
EUR/USD tests 1.2140
Following a few days of decline, the Euro finally recovered some losses against its American counterpart on Friday. The pair managed to appreciate limited 65 pips during the second part of the session until the combined resistance of the 55-hour SMA and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement stopped any further advances.Some upside potential could still be apparent on Monday morning; however, the 100-hour moving average, the weekly PP and the breached channel line circa 1.2160 are likely to stop this upward movement. Meanwhile, the expected fall should not exceed the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement and the weekly S1 at 1.2035.
By and large, the general trend for this week should remain north towards the psychological 1.23 mark.
Hourly Chart
Last week brought major losses for the Euro as a result of which it plunged by 2.18% against the Greenback. Along the way, the 100-day SMA, the weekly PP and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement were breached circa 1.22.
Some downside potential is still apparent in the market this week, with the nearest support being formed by the weekly S2 and the 200-day SMA at 1.20. Even if the pair falls down to this cluster, a movement south is unlikely to follow. Instead, the Pound should re-approach the 1.22 territory.
Daily Chart
Bulls grow stronger
EUR/USD remains strongly bullish with 64% of open positions being long (-1%).
The outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is as follows: the Euro is 52% bullish and the US Dollar is 59% bearish.
The market sentiment of OANDA remains bearish today, as 53% of its traders are holding short positions (unchanged from Friday). Saxo Bank clients are also bearish with 59% of open positions being short (+3%).
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility