- Pending orders in the 100-pip range are at equilibrium
- SWFX market sentiment is 53% bullish (+1%)
- Upcoming fundamental events: GDP Preliminary GDP q/q, US Advance GDP q/q, US Advance GDP Price Index q/q, US Employment Cost Index q/q, US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, BOE Governor Carney to speak
GBP/USD is likely to be guided by fundamentals in this session.
The US Census Bureau released two data simultaneously, where Core Durable Goods Orders came out less-than-expected of 0.0%, however Durable Goods Orders came out better-than-expected of 2.6%. Moreover, Unemployment Claims turned out to be 209K in March.
UK, US GDP readings
Friday's trading session includes several important fundamental releases that are likely to introduce some volatility in the market. The morning will start with the British Preliminary GDP for the first quarter of 2018 which is released at 0830GMT.
The US Advance GDP is being published at 1230GMT. Analysts expect that the US economy grew by 2% during the first quarter, compared to an increase of 2.9% in Q4Y2017. The US Advance GDP Price Index and the Employment Cost Index are likewise released at the same time.
This trading week will end with the Revised Consumer Sentiment by the University of Michigan at 1400GMT.
GBP/USD calm before busy session
GBP/USD demonstrated high volatility in both directions on Thursday. The pair, however, managed to remain within the bounds of a short-term channel, at the same time having returned to its Wednesday-morning level today.It is expected that the Sterling maintains its slight tendency downwards during the first part of the day due to the combined resistance of the 55– and 100-hour SMAs and the 38.20% Fibo retracement near 1.3950.
However, this session is dependent on the US and UK GDP data releases that are very likely to introduce quite significant volatility in the market. Thus, the possible trading range for today should be relatively wide. Gains are limited by the 200-hour SMA at 1.41, while the monthly S1 and the weekly S2 are supporting the Pound at 1.3740.
Hourly chart
The Sterling has been driven by strong downside potential during the previous five trading sessions. As a result, it breached the combined support of the 55-day SMA, the monthly PP and a trend-line circa 1.4020 earlier this week.
The rate is currently approaching the weekly S2, the 100-day SMA and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near 1.3850. This level is likely to be breached, thus setting the senior channel and the monthly S1 at 1.3740 as the next two-week target.
Daily Chart
The SWFX market sentiment remains bullish today, as 53% of open positions are long (+1%). Meanwhile, 53% of pending orders are nevertheless to sell the Pound (+1%).
The market sentiment of OANDA traders is at equilibrium today, compared to 51% short positions on Thursday. Saxo Bank clients are once again bearish on the Pound with 51% short positions.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility