- SWFX market sentiment is once more 56% bearish
- Pending orders in the 100-pip range are 51% to SELL
- Time for US Durable Goods
On Thursday the USD/JPY rate had passed another resistance level. However, the currency pair had met with a newly discovered resistance line of the daily chart.
On Wednesday the Conference Board Inc. released better-than-expected Consumer Confidence, surpassing the forecasts of 126.0 with the number of 128.7 in April.
USD/JPY currency pair remained under pressure afterwards. One of the main reasons for Greenback to rally was the high yield of the 10-year United States treasury bills, which showed notable gains during the start of the week.
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In regards to impact to the US Dollar and subsequently all other financial instruments that are pegged to it, the end of the week will be important. On Thursday at 12:30 GMT the US Durable Goods data sets will be out.
However, the most important macroeconomic data set of the quarter will be released on Friday. Namely, the US Advance GDP will be published at 12:30 GMT.
Both the release of the Durable Goods Orders and Advance GDP will be covered by the Dukascopy analysts on the bank's live webinar platform ten minutes before the data is released.
USD/JPY breaches junior pattern
The US Dollar managed to resume its strong upside momentum on Thursday and shot up 63 pips during the day. The pair surpassed the weekly R3 and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement and was trading at the 109.50 at the time of this analysis.Given that the pair breached the short-term ascending channel early in the session, the pair might go for a minor correction south. The nearest support is the 55-hour SMA and the weekly R3 at 109.00.
It is likely that the Greenback edges even lower and tests the upper boundary of the breached five-week ascending wedge and the monthly R2 at 108.70.
In general, the bearish sentiment could prevail in the remaining part of the week, thus giving bulls some time to recuperate and continue its upward momentum.
Hourly Chart
After waiting for a rather long period of time to spot the new pattern of the daily chart, it seems that one has been noticed.
Namely, a medium term, but rather narrow ranged ascending pattern was spotted due to the recent small scale decline of the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen.
Daily chart
SWFX traders had become bearish on the USD/JPY, as 56% of open positions were short during the morning hours. However, trader set up orders were bullish with 58% of pending orders being set to buy the Greenback.
Meanwhile, the market sentiment of OANDA traders remains strongly bullish with 59% long positions. In addition, Saxo bank traders are 58% long on this pair.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility