- SWFX market sentiment is at equilibrium today
- 53% of pending orders in 100-pip range are to SELL the Euro
- Likely upside target at 1.23
- Quiet session in terms of fundamentals
The common European currency has returned at the breached senior channel; more likely to move south.
The Eurozone's single currency weakened against the Greenback, following the UK non-farm employment change data on Friday. The EUR/USD currency pair skyrocketed 24 pips or 0.19%, to continue fluctuating in the 1.2272 area.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed much lower-than-expected data in non-farm employment change in March. However, there was an employment growth of 103K, it decreased more than three times from 326K in the prior month. Without non-farm employment change there were two more data sets that came out simultaneously. Average hourly earnings stayed in line with the forecast; however, unemployment rate came out to be 4.1%, which was 0.1% more than expected.
Quiet session
The economic calendar is empty in this session, so the pair might show low volatility today.
EUR/USD retraces from breached channel
EUR/USD was trading slightly above the 1.2240 mark early on Friday, being restricted by the 38.20% Fibo retracement. This sentiment changed in favour of bulls mid-session in response to rather disappointing US employment data.Upside risks likewise prevailed during the following hours, thus sending the pair towards the upper boundary of a short-term channel and the weekly PP circa 1.2280. As a result of this upside movement, the Euro has likewise formed a retracement from the previously-breached senior channel.
Technical indicators are more bearish for today, thus suggesting that the combined support of the 55– and 100-hour SMAs near 1.2275 is more likely to be surpassed than the 200-hour SMA at 1.23. The latter is also reinforced by the monthly PP at 1.2320.
Hourly Chart
The common European currency managed to breach the 55-day SMA and the prevailing senior channel late in March. This factor together with bearish technical indicators add some ground to the assumption that the pair is likely to edge lower during this week.
The nearest support cluster is set by the monthly S1, the weekly S2, the 100-hour SMA and the 50.00% Fibonacci retracement near 1.2150.
Daily Chart
Sentiment more neutral
The SWFX market sentiment for EUR/USD is currently located at equilibrium, compared to 53% short positions on Friday.
The outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is as follows: the Euro is 59% bearish and the US Dollar is 51% bullish.
The bearish sentiment of OANDA traders stands at 54% (-1%). Saxo Bank clients share the same sentiment with 59% of open positions being short (+2%).
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility