- Traders are bearish with 52% short positions
- 60% of pending orders in 100-pip range are to SELL the Euro
- Strong support cluster near 1.2310
- Upcoming events: US (Core) Durable Goods Orders m/m
The Euro strengthened against the Greenback, following the release of the EU trade balance report. The EUR/USD currency pair gained 14 base points, or 0.11%, reaching the 1.2295 level, to continue fluctuating and reaching the intraday's high around the 1.2325 area.
The Eurostat revealed on Monday that the EU trade balance data did not meet expectations, showing the trade surplus of 19.9B in January, following the downwardly revised 23.2B in the prior month. Even though the data came out less-than-expected, it was positive and it positively impacted the growth of EUR/USD currency pair. Moreover, interesting initial reactions on main pairs can be seen, where EUR/GBP stood out with a 0.20% downturn, caused by recent Brexit agreements.
US Core Durable Goods
The only significant fundamental event in this session is the US (Core) Durable Goods Orders to be released at 1230GMT. Analysts expect a 0.5% increase in the core reading, compared to a 0.3% decline during the preceding month.
EUR/USD regains positions on Friday morning
After reaching this week's high of 1.2380 early on Thursday, EUR/JPY started a new decline. This fall was caused by disappointing Markit PMI data for the Euro zone and Germany. As a result, the pair dashed through the 200-hour SMA and the weekly PP.Some bullish pressure was introduced late in the evening when the US Dollar weakened in response to new tariffs on China imposed by the Trump administration. The Euro found support at the 55– and 100-hour SMAs circa 1.23 and was trading near 1.2335 at the time of this analysis.
From technical point of view, the pair should push for the trend-line and the 23.60% Fibo at 1.2360. It is likely that the pair remains stranded between this line and the SMAs prior to US fundamentals.
The general tendency is likely to remain upwards closer to 1.24.
Hourly Chart
The common European currency continued to depreciate against the US Dollar in a rather flat movement south during the past week. The pair had breached the 55-day SMA on Tuesday, but the strong upside momentum caused by the FOMC policy statement yesterday pushed the rate back above this line.
It is expected that the pair breaches the senior channel during the following week. The 50.00% Fibonacci retracement is likewise located nearby. This bearish scenario is supported by technical indicators on the daily time-frame.
However, the 55-day SMA might provide some support for a few sessions, thus leaving the rate stable during this time.
Daily Chart
Sentiment strongly bearish
The number of short positions of EUR/USD remains at 52% in this session.
The outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is as follows: the Euro is 59% bearish and the US Dollar is 53% bullish.
The bearish sentiment of OANDA traders is standing at 58% short positions today (-1%). Saxo Bank clients share the same sentiment with 58% short positions.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility