- Traders are bearish with 56% short positions (-2%)
- 63% of pending orders in 100-pip range are to SELL the Euro
- Significant resistance cluster near 1.2360
- Upcoming events: US Building Permits and Housing Starts, US Capacity Utilisation Rate, US Industrial Production, US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment
The Greenback fluctuated based on the releases of the controversial reports from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Philadelphia and the US Department of Labour on Thursday. The EUR/USD currency pair lost 10 pips, or 0.08%, reaching the 1.2337 level.
The three simultaneously released reports created small increase in volatility in the financial currency market. The US unemployment claims data came out slightly better than expected, and with a help of the positive Empire State manufacturing index data, pushed EUR/USD pair lower. However, the Philly Fed manufacturing index data came out a bit short of expectations, as the divergence did not surprise the markets enough for a correction.
US Building Permits
The most important fundamental event in this session is the Building Permits published by the US Census Bureau at 1230GMT. Analysts expect that the number of new residential building permits rose by 1.32M in February, compared to an increase of 1.38M during the preceding month.
Other US fundamentals of intermediate importance are likewise scheduled for today, namely, the Housing Starts at 1230GMT, the Capacity Utilisation Rate and Industrial Production at 1315GMT and the Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment at 1400GMT.
EUR/USD shows signs of recovery
Contrary to expectations, the common European currency was guided by bears on Thursday. This strong momentum south allowed the pair to dash through the combined support of the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs and the weekly PP. The second part of the day showed high volatility in both directions which allayed considerably during the Asian session early today.It seems that bulls could be ready to push the rate away from its two-week low of 1.2290 and regain some of its positions lost yesterday. The Euro is likely to aim for the resistance cluster formed by the aforementioned SMAs and the 23.60% Fibo retracement near the 1.2360 area.
In case of favourable US Building Permits, this level might even be breached to the upside, thus setting 1.2380 as a daily high.
Hourly Chart
The Euro retraced from the breached channel last week and has since edged slightly lower. It is likely that the pair continues its medium-term down-trend and approaches the bottom boundary of the senior channel circa 1.22 during the following trading sessions.
Daily Chart
Traders are bearish
The number of short positions of EUR/USD is 56% in this session (+2%).
The outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is as follows: the Euro is 63% bearish and the US Dollar is 56% bullish.
The bearish sentiment of OANDA traders is standing at 59% short positions today. Saxo Bank clients have decreased their short positions to 58% (-3%).
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility