- SWFX market sentiment is 56% bearish
- 51% of pending orders in 100-pip range are set to SELL
- 52% of traders are bullish on the Dollar
- Upcoming Events: US Final GDP, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Unemployment Claims
The Euro continued to advance against the Dollar as expected. In result of this advance, the pair managed to break through the upper boundary of a senior descending channel. Nevertheless, the further direction will greatly depend on the fundamental data releases and progress on tax reform.
The US single-family housing starts and building permits increased to the ten-year highs in November, providing a hopeful sign for the real estate market that was hindered by supply constraints. The Commerce Department stated that in overall building permits were at a 1.298M unit rate in November, being put slightly down by a weaker permits for multi-family houses' construction. However, an increase in groundbreaking single-family homes could contribute to GDP in the Q4.
The US home sales rose more than anticipated in November to reach the highest level in 11 years, indicating that the property market growth started to regain momentum after procrastination for the most of the year. The National Association of Realtors stated that the country's exciting home sales increased 5.6% to a seasonally adjusted yearly rate of 5.81M units due to lingering recovery of hurricanes-hurt areas. However, the market activity remained constrained by a shortage of available properties, which kept prices elevated.
GDP in focus
Today at 13:30 GMT Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish the final figures of the American GDP for the third quarter. Simultaneously other institutions will release the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and change in the Unemployment Claims. This triple release will be covered by Dukascopy Research Team at webinar.
EUR/USD fails to pass through 61.8% Fibo
The common European currency continued to rise against the Dollar in a tiny ascending channel. Despite release of improved housing data the pair managed to break through the upper boundary of a one-month long descending channel and end the day at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level located at 1.1887. The rising moving averages that are lying along the lower edge of the pattern are expected to support the further surge. However, there is a need to take into account that supposed resistance zone located around the 1.1910 mark might lead to a fully-fledged rebound. If this scenario materializes it might be a sign confirming an existence of another larger ascending channel. In this regard it should be noticed that 51% of pending orders in 100-pip range are set to sell.
Hourly Chart
Continuous appreciation of the Euro suggests on existence of another ascending channel that represents a part of a dominant descending pattern. If this assumption is true, then currency rate should continue moving upwards, trying to reach an area near the 1.1880 mark. However, there is also a chance that it will fail to bypass the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level located at 1.1887.
Daily Chart
Market sentiment is bearish
In result of the previous trading session the bearish market sentiment has increased, as 56% of open positions are short now.
In the meantime, the outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is the following: the Euro is 60% bearish and the Dollar is 52% bullish.
Traders of OANDA remain bearish, as 60% (-2%) of open positions are short. Meanwhile, SAXO are bearish on this currency pair with 61% (+1%) of open short positions.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility